nspolar re:["You said you sold at HUI 140"]
....I did per per the link below that you posted, but you do need to read it entirely and not just hear what you want to hear.
Message 18359088
- read the entire post, re:
[" After selling into the May run for goldstocks; I slowly built back up from a core 30% portfolio weighted position; back to 50%ish+ on the July & Oct pullbacks... gotta take some profits here and I'm now back down to a core 30% position once again with sell stops set for half to 3/4's of that in the mid HUI 120's fwiw ( I aint riding anything back under HUI 120 here fwiw... I'll buy back on strength ONLY, if I get stopped out on the balance of my Gold holdigs @ 125-7ish.'}
I sold down from a 50-60% portfolio weighting to a "core 30%" portfolio weighted position...per that post.
I ALSO set stops as I said in that linked post @ 125-27ish on the downside and given what I think are collapsing nearterm positive catalysts; I also added sell stops from 145-150 HUIish on an individual stock basis & each 7.5 points HUI points (ea 5%) on the upside - leaving me now only a bit over a reduced 10%-15% "core" portfolio position in Gold/PM's, counting a modest physical position as well.
I saw reasons,fundamental & technical/sentiment driven; to take a little more profit off the table here...and at HUI 127ish on the downside - I'll be entirely stopped out of ALL of my Gold stocks here...unless we see something unforseen of the bio, or dirty nuke variety...quite simply:
I "AINT" giving it back...
This wan't any world class technical call... it was merely a fundamental white-bread, run of the mill trading discipline...ie: seeing where prior resistance was & taking a temperature read on market sentiment & present underlying fundamentals... and correctly identifying "WHY" we ran so fast & so easy back to HUI 140-150 here again.
Where we seem to disagree is; as to WHY - we moved so fast & easy off this last pullback to $305ish POG & HUI 105 to 115 and ran like a hot knife thru butter to HUI 150 & $350+ POG.
Many of YOU thought it was because we were entering the next up leg of the Gold Bull Cycle and that the masses now saw and bought into the underlying fundamental drivers that we see & discuss here.... "I" didn't see it that way... it was portfoli window dressing, the normal momenteum player suspects and Gulf War Deja Vu - War/Risk hedging...nothing more, nothing less.
...go back to the original SI SD thead, or the old Yahoo RIG thread led by Mr. Supplyside Econ during the top of the last Oilpatch cycle if you want a little taste of what's it's like to "Give it all back"... and you'll see it isn't the first time I (and others) been chastised for taking the money & running against the grain.
Same thing happend 2 years ago during the California Black Out Nat Gas Bubble.... a very small "few" unloaded in late December into the calls of a "new era, a new multi-year/new paradigm Oilpatch Bull Cycle".... yada, yada, yada, boom, boom to bust room...
If you don't get chastised when you enter... you won't be buying into the bottom and if you don't get chastised when you start unloading and heading for the exit door... you won't be getting out at the tops either.
...been there & done that on the move from Black to Yellow Gold.
FWIW, I don't think the Gold Bull is over... but, I don't rule out the possibility that it could be.... so,I've also lowered my buy-back targets to HUI 95-105ish again.
The Big & Easy money has already been made in this Gold cycle imho.
My goal is to nail the 75% sweetspot of a cyclical move... hopefully, with a few in & out swingtrade opps along the way; where one can pick up a few 20-30, maybe even 40-50 point index runs 2, even 3 times in the same territory, as we range trade, or pullback to support levels....as we just did.
We've had 2 nice & very profitable runs to HUI 140-150ish resistance over the last year... nothing wrong with seeing resistance & profit taking at those levels and making the same trade/exit twice.
The OSX did the same damn thing in it's last cycle... had a double top that gave people 2 trades in the same resistance levels and then a final exit.
Nothing mystical, or magical there.
I usually always, stagger sell targets on the upside & stop outs to the downside... and when I sell off a major chunk of a play into new highs, or at a resistance point of a prior move...I may take 5-10% of the "retained profits" (NOT 5-10% portfolio position) and will buy some outlying, out of the money calls and/or leaps - to give me a little leverage if I sell too soon and the sector runs significantly higher.
I posted long ago... that when, or if GOLD ever runs thru $600, or $800 that I doubt I'd still be in.
I think we all should have learned to leave expected speculative bubble moves to others... I have .
I think even the longterm Goldbugs can see that the prior decade equilibrium price of Gold was $380ish in good times...before the Central Banks started selling and the Cabal started manipulating the long US Dollar/Short Gold carry trade.... imho anything over $450 POG (sans a serious nuclear, or bio event) is NAZWRECK-speculative mania deja vu - all over again territory - to where the HOGS should and will be slaughtered.
Those here with visions of sugarplums & another run to $800 POG & $50 Silver dancing in their heads; have more in common with those still holding Yahoo & hoping for $300 per share once again, than they do with those that sold the top into the last Oilpatch Bull and made the leap from Black to Yellow Gold...which imho, led to the creation of SI SD II by the way...
Hey, if we ever see $800 Gold - I hope you all become millionaires.... me; I'll take the middle road and leave the blue sky to you...aint no once in a lifetime 20 bagger IPO-NAZWRECK-Inet speculative mania bones left in me... give me nice 2,3,4,5 bagger reality plays and I'll leave the next Golden Yahoo's, or PeaPod's to the dreamers...
PS:
Don't fall in love with any sector...ever.
Always, at any time.... be willing on a moments notice, to take the money & run...because once the herd changes directions, it's awfully crowded at the exits.
The Gold Bull aint over imho, but the High Reward - Low Risk/Easy Money move is... and we're due for a significant pause that refreshes here imo.
The Bulls have tons of cash.... huge $ in money markets and cash from the recent rotation out of bonds.... once again; they have the WILLINGNESS (ie: the very recent Oct rally), they have the CASH (bonds & money markets) and you can be guarandamnteed; that they'll be willing to raise & wave the Flag once troops & tanks are rolling in Iraq... and they will be waving the pom-poms and calling "The Bottom part IV" along with the end of the recession, the start of a new Bull - yada, yada, yada.
The most concerted prop-job, cheerleading, FED, ESF-PPT and Inside Wall Street Rally yet, within this BEAR is just a few months away imho...
Powerfull global forces at work here... GW Bush can NOT have Oil spike to $60 and can't have the markets take another leg down to new low's.... and Greenspan wants an intact "legacy" exit opp... and they're going to print & throw enough money & liquidity at it - to insure it happening....
I wouldn't be suprised if we hit DOW 10,000 off of it... I'm planning to go short around 9300ish; so it's a move I both anticipate and welcome.
People forget; we can and imho; probably will have a growing & expanding economy into a still contracting stock market.... won't be the first & won't be the last... valuation multiple contractions will be ongoing for a few years imho and we're also starting to use & get cleaned up earnings numbers.
Historic, sane valuation multiples dictate DOW 5000 & S&P 500 as where we're heading imho.... it's the valuations stupid... and King Dollar's going to USD 80 over time imho.
HUI 185ish & Gold $425ish sans any nuclear, or bio events is the "realistic" upside I see over the next year... that's 20% upside from the recent tops.... and 20% "aint" HIGH reward, or low risk in my book... hence the heavy cash register ring of late.
...it's just my opinion; and my money... ain't like my selling is going to move the market like Fidelity or anything.
It's been a very huge & profitable run for everyone here... lot's of us entered at/near the final bottom formation in Gold and levered the best performing sector in the market over the last 2 years...Godspeed to anyone who decides to walk away with wheelbarrows laden with locked in profits here.... and shame, shame, shame for any & all... who ride & reload all the way back down... when that day arrives when the ride is over.
PSS:
Given low mortgage rates and new highs in mortgage foreclosures... there is a historic opportunity in select Real Estate Markets for Single Family Rental Properties... the spreads between mortgage payments and rents - has NEVER been greater... lot's of places in the "real world" to put those Profits to work folks... the coming decade may offer few opps like we just saw in Oil and then Gold over the last 4 years.
The Mortgage Refi Boom is heading for a Bust... lots of money made there... the next "real world" play is in rental properties in low property value markets ...like Rockford Il, Indianapolis, Ft. Wayne, South Bend In, Kalamazoo, Gr Rapids Mi etc... where $35-$60K will buy a 2 story 3-4 Bedroom/2 bath older/sound home... with a $300-$450 mortgage payments & $600-$800 rent levels... nice spreads/cash flow in an appreciating asset... and there aint no RE Buble in these markets in these price ranges... working people will always need affordable housing... and the spreads have NEVER been better in the history of the RE market for Rental property.
...it's just my .02cents....if I'm wrong and Gold runs to $6-800; so be it... I've stuck enough cash in the register over the last 4 years to weather the storm with my Hubris intact (vbg)....good luck.
ciao~ |
