Now yours was a perfectly well reasoned post.
I might unload but not here. 90-95 is my near term
target. That's based on looking out 12 mo. only. With an issue this strong people will be looking at least 18 mos, maybe out 24 months. My target based on FY 98 (18 mo out) is abt.
115. On 24 mo. out earnings, abt 135. Doesn't mean I
think it will take 24 mo. to trade there. Probably more like a year. 135 Who knows? 80 - 135 = 68% return. Pretty nice whether it takes
one year, 18 mo., whatever.
Sure Dell can't keep growing at 100%, don't expect them to.
Seems Michael Dell's indication is 2-3x industry, probably depends
how far in the future you're talking.
So lets say 50% revenue growth next 12 mo, then 35% a year. But
I'm only using a 40% earnings growth no. -- i.e., some margin
deterioration. May well turn out too conservative.
Probably can't keep that up for more than 3-5 years, then
start asymptotic intersection with industry rate of growth.
Unless of course Dell can starting eating HP's and IBM's and
Sun's lunch in the workstation and server markets, with
super duper Pentium Pros and Windows NT (which is a better,
if only now becoming accepted) server/workstation OS. |
