One more sermon and then I'll leave you alone....g
The only reason that I bother is because I know that you are serious about wanting to learn things. I appreciate that you ask intelligent questions, I learn as much from them as you do.
if we could go all the way back to Tuesday's close from yesterday's highs (or higher) and still not know whether we were pointing up or down, then, for a wiggle trader, EW was not being very helpful.
I understood your question. I pointed you to the tutorial because it's a generally accepted principal that the four of an impulse will stop at the 4 of 3 of one less degree. It's not technically invalid until it crosses back below the one but for trading you buy around that area(4 of 3) when you are in a strong impulse and then take the 5 on up. You simply can't try to do ewave without at least reading EWP. That is the base that you need to build from. The EWI tutorial is a free, with registration, ebook of that text. If you handicap yourself from the beginning you are asking for frustration.
And if Tuesday's jello could be counted as either the beginning of a bullish impulse or a continuing correction lower, then again, how can I use it in my trading?
A note about jello. It's fun to say jello and all that but in reality there isn't any such thing. Any pattern in any timeframe can be counted. The first wave of the impulse from yesterday was a good little impulse. It did not start at the "orthodox low" which is another concept that you would know if you read ewp. The point is that everything that happens makes sense in waves but it's not always easy to figure out. If you call something jello you are really saying "i don't want to bother trying to figure it out".
Also you aren't going to be able to predict a five day rally by looking at a 10 minute chart(unless it's got a crapload of bars). The size of the structure and the time frame of the chart dictates the size of the moves that can be predicted from it. If you want to be able to sell or buy and stay in for a day or two you better at least look for structures in the 15-30 minute charts.
To specifically address your concern about what can be predicted from onishkas count, look at my post from this am. I said that I expected us to struggle up to 885 and then either top or correct from there. After I posted that I went out for the day, came home, and guess what happened? That was based solely on ewave. No volume, no ma's, bb's, volume, adline, put\call, etc.
You can only predict one or two wave sets into the future at any given time. We know that we did an impulse from tuesday. We know that the impulse will be corrected after five waves up. So depending on the way the wave looks then you either bet that the impulse is complete and go short or if the structure doesnt look done then you buy a pullback. The key is the shape of the action. This is how ewave differs from most TA and particulary modern stuff because aside from fib numbers it's completely free of higher math and rocket science.
Ewave like chess is more of a pattern recognition thing. It's been proven that the best chess players are far above average in pattern recognition than most people. They perceive the structure of the pieces and the arrangement and at a glance and they can make intuitive decisions about what is happening. They don't look at each piece and discount the validity of moving each piece through it's entire range of motion. Essentially they look for the forest rather than measuring the width of each tree. |
