Fertilizer up, fuel up, seed prices higher, uncertain moisture conditions....
Ag Canada Releases Production Costs; Acreage Projections
In Western Canada, all wheat area will increase in 2003. That was just one prediction made by Agriculture Canada & Agri-Food Canada Bi-Weekly Bulletin released April 11.
The government report also indicated that spring wheat area will probably be up to 7.8 million hectares in 2003, from 7.6 million last year. Area seeded to durum is expected to decrease by about 2 percent due to the reduced premium over spring wheat in 2002- 2003.
Area seeded to barley in Western Canada is forecast to increase substantially from 2002, to 5.0 million hectares, says AAFC.
Oats seeded area in Western Canada is projected to increase marginally to 2.26 million hectares.
Canola area in Western Canada is projected to increase by 12 percent due to strong prices expected for 2003-2004 (relative to other crops), low carry-out stocks, and strong prices in 2002-2003.
Flaxseed area Canada is forecast to increase by about 5 percent to 726,000 hectares.
These projections are based on part on production costs and other input from the trade. There will be a great deal more attention given to the planting intentions report due from Statistics Canada on April 24.
(Note: To convert from hectares to acres, multiply by 2.471)
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s Bi-Weekly Bulletin also took a look at production costs. Fertilizer prices in 2003 are about 40 percent higher than last fall and roughly 35 percent higher than the same time last year, said the report.
Because of tight natural gas supplies and limited production, most analysts expect nitrogen fertilizer prices to remain at current levels in the short-term, it added.
Farmers will pay more for fuel this year, says AAFC. While oil prices have eased in the last few weeks with the prospect that the war in Iraq may be short, farm fuel prices are expected to continue to be higher in 2003 compared to 2002. The United States government’s mandate to stockpile oil reserves and the uncertainties of supply associated with the war in Iraq are expected to buoy oil prices in 2003 despite a slowing US economy.
Herbicide prices will likely stay similar to last year. But pesticide use may have to increase, causing more money to be spent. "In areas of Western Canada, pesticide use may be higher than normal to combat expected higher levels of grasshoppers, especially if conditions remain dry. Expected increases in grasshopper populations will increase the economic thresholds at which it is financially beneficial to spray crops,” said the report.
The cost of seed has increased in 2003 for almost all crops. Seed costs when compared to 2002 are expected to vary considerably. This variability can range as much as 60 percent higher for canola seed, says the report.
Crop insurance costs in 2003 are expected to be higher, however the increases will vary depending on the province and crop seeded.
Some Acreage Details for Saskatchewan
Federal analysts aren’t the only ones busy looking ahead. Saskatchewan analysts are doing the job of making forecasts, too. Saskatchewan producers are expected to seed 34.6 million acres to the various crops this spring, according to the first crop update of the year from the province's Agriculture, Food and Rural Revitalization Department.
This would be 1 percent higher than last year's level of 34.3 million acres and 4 percent above the ten-year average of 33.1 million.
The report said that Saskatchewan farmers are forecast to increase or maintain the area they seed to all crops, except sunflowers, lentils and chickpeas. Sunflower acreage is expected to decline by 2 percent, lentils by 4 percent and chickpeas by 30 percent. The forecast declines in lentils and chickpeas were attributed to insect and disease pressures.
Summer fallow area in Saskatchewan is expected to decrease about 4 percent from 2002 to 7.1 million acres in 2003. This would also be 31 percent below the ten-year average.
Precipitation during the winter varied from near normal in south central and eastern areas of the grain belt, to slightly above normal in central areas, the report said. Northern and western areas of the grain belt received below normal precipitation. However, a spring storm dumped significant snow amounts across southern and west central areas of the province.
The province's crop reporters estimated that supplies of livestock feed, grain and forage are adequate at present. However, northwestern and west central regions are expected to run short very soon
Ag Canada Releases Production Costs; Acreage Projections
In Western Canada, all wheat area will increase in 2003. That was just one prediction made by Agriculture Canada & Agri-Food Canada Bi-Weekly Bulletin released April 11.
The government report also indicated that spring wheat area will probably be up to 7.8 million hectares in 2003, from 7.6 million last year. Area seeded to durum is expected to decrease by about 2 percent due to the reduced premium over spring wheat in 2002- 2003.
Area seeded to barley in Western Canada is forecast to increase substantially from 2002, to 5.0 million hectares, says AAFC.
Oats seeded area in Western Canada is projected to increase marginally to 2.26 million hectares.
Canola area in Western Canada is projected to increase by 12 percent due to strong prices expected for 2003-2004 (relative to other crops), low carry-out stocks, and strong prices in 2002-2003.
Flaxseed area Canada is forecast to increase by about 5 percent to 726,000 hectares.
These projections are based on part on production costs and other input from the trade. There will be a great deal more attention given to the planting intentions report due from Statistics Canada on April 24.
(Note: To convert from hectares to acres, multiply by 2.471)
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s Bi-Weekly Bulletin also took a look at production costs. Fertilizer prices in 2003 are about 40 percent higher than last fall and roughly 35 percent higher than the same time last year, said the report.
Because of tight natural gas supplies and limited production, most analysts expect nitrogen fertilizer prices to remain at current levels in the short-term, it added.
Farmers will pay more for fuel this year, says AAFC. While oil prices have eased in the last few weeks with the prospect that the war in Iraq may be short, farm fuel prices are expected to continue to be higher in 2003 compared to 2002. The United States government’s mandate to stockpile oil reserves and the uncertainties of supply associated with the war in Iraq are expected to buoy oil prices in 2003 despite a slowing US economy.
Herbicide prices will likely stay similar to last year. But pesticide use may have to increase, causing more money to be spent. "In areas of Western Canada, pesticide use may be higher than normal to combat expected higher levels of grasshoppers, especially if conditions remain dry. Expected increases in grasshopper populations will increase the economic thresholds at which it is financially beneficial to spray crops,” said the report.
The cost of seed has increased in 2003 for almost all crops. Seed costs when compared to 2002 are expected to vary considerably. This variability can range as much as 60 percent higher for canola seed, says the report.
Crop insurance costs in 2003 are expected to be higher, however the increases will vary depending on the province and crop seeded.
Some Acreage Details for Saskatchewan
Federal analysts aren’t the only ones busy looking ahead. Saskatchewan analysts are doing the job of making forecasts, too. Saskatchewan producers are expected to seed 34.6 million acres to the various crops this spring, according to the first crop update of the year from the province's Agriculture, Food and Rural Revitalization Department.
This would be 1 percent higher than last year's level of 34.3 million acres and 4 percent above the ten-year average of 33.1 million.
The report said that Saskatchewan farmers are forecast to increase or maintain the area they seed to all crops, except sunflowers, lentils and chickpeas. Sunflower acreage is expected to decline by 2 percent, lentils by 4 percent and chickpeas by 30 percent. The forecast declines in lentils and chickpeas were attributed to insect and disease pressures.
Summer fallow area in Saskatchewan is expected to decrease about 4 percent from 2002 to 7.1 million acres in 2003. This would also be 31 percent below the ten-year average.
Precipitation during the winter varied from near normal in south central and eastern areas of the grain belt, to slightly above normal in central areas, the report said. Northern and western areas of the grain belt received below normal precipitation. However, a spring storm dumped significant snow amounts across southern and west central areas of the province.
The province's crop reporters estimated that supplies of livestock feed, grain and forage are adequate at present. However, northwestern and west central regions are expected to run short very soon
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