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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: pezz who wrote (32224)4/25/2003 5:45:54 AM
From: TobagoJack   of 74559
 
Hello Pezz, Today's Report by SARS embedded reporter Jay Chen of the BBR thread:

I am following up on our recent discussion regarding due diligence and the risk-managed way to buildup a position. I depend more on the latter than rely on the former.

Today I doubled my LTBH position in PetroChina @ HKD 1.64/shr.

The way the position was built up is as follows:

(a) Bought a dollop on October 30th, 2000, at HKD 1.66/shr

(b) Shorted 4 dollops of PTR March strike 20 puts on October 9th, 2002, at USD 1.30/shr

© Bought another dollop on November 27th, 2002, at HKD 1.50

(d) Sold a dollop on January 8th, 2003, at HKD 1.55

(e) 4 dollops of PTR March puts expired worthless, allowing me to recognize premium proceeds as earned income.

(f) Collected HKD 0.24/shr of dividends since October 30th, 2000

So, the new aggregate average cost is HKD 1.30, with the older lot having a cost basis of HKD 0.95/shr.

I doubled my PetroChina bet not because I know what is going on through diligent micro research, but because my original macro-view that enabled my starting stake has been validated by interim dividend of 15% in 28 months, and now, confirmed by Mr. Omaha Message 18881372 .

Chugs, Jay

References:

A
Message 14760610
November 8th, 2000
… I have turned maximally conservative sometime ago, fearful, terrified, cowered and otherwise in fear for my financial equilibrium and well being. I have retreated to 9% equity … I had newly bought some … PetroChina (857.hk) shares


B
Message 18415900
January 8th, 2003
Hello Pezz, Another Report:
I just sold off these trades ...
Message 18282552
November 27th, 2002
The pre-open orders mentioned here Message 18282486 were fully executed thus
(b) Petro China @ HK$ 1.50
(c) China Shipping at HK$ 1.55
... at 1.55 and 1.80 respectively, scoring a gain, of course. Preparing for April 2003 blood-letting;0)
Chugs, Jay
P.S. I still hold earlier tranches and dollops of Petro China, China Shipping.


C
Message 18731678
March 21th, 2003
Hello Pezz, Tonight’s Report:

(a) I am counting on the following shorted Puts (MO and PTR) to expire worthless, in my favor, as usual, allowing me to abscond with mucho premium for nothing down:0)

Message 18092103
October 9th, 2002
Hello Pezz, Today's Report:
(a) Shorted Philip Morris (MO) March Strike 32.5 Puts @ 2.35/shr premium
(b) Shorted China Petroleum (PTR) March Strike 20 Puts @ 1.3/shr premium [Ref: Petro China (HK.857 baby.boom.com.hk , and quote.bloomberg.com. )]
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