Many if not most of us have been anticipating the USD collapse, it's been a common theme here. Au is of course a variation of the same USD bear market theme. What I've been thinking of lately is that a big capital flow out of the US (similar to that experienced by other nations) will occur. The most likely source of that would be out of the bond market (and big cap stock market, the stuff everybody holds, including foreigners). If a big capital flow were really happening we would be seeing an uptick in rates (?), especially in the dates and issues the Fed and PPT doesn't screw around with much. The fact that bonds keep rallying seems a little inconsistent with a major capital outflow theory? So I'm starting to lean toward the idea that a lot of the USD weakness (and POG strength) may be more hedge fund driven. The quick moves have that hedge fund lean-on look to it. If these guys are the one's leaning against the market, look out, as we may see a whipsaw back up in the USD (and down POG). I think the commercials have placed their bets on this whipsaw thesis, and I hate to go against it. From a practical point of view I'd like to sell a good portion my gold positions into a rally. But there hasn't been much of one to sell into, so I'm getting that deer in the headlights feeling in the pit of the stomach concerning gold. Give me good upticks and I give them stock. Otherwise, I may end up riding it back down.
Meanwhile, something very interesting is going on in the energy sector, that I think is real. Virtually all the names I was pounding the table on pre-BOB are showing lift off. I'm in a strong hold mode there, and today especially was powerful after Easy Al's "my dog ate the homework" routine on Capital Hill regarding natural gas.
Message 18962964
I'm going to take my bragging rights on energy even if "retired" sticks me on the puffy person board. I'm cleaning up, and I told everybody so.
On the special situations I've been playing, I cleared out my biotechs (a little early), and my defense stocks (about right). I've really been cranking up my shorts over the last week or so. My short on retailer LOW got off perfectly at 45.89. My reload big bet against all the credit/financial/mortgage bubble names (CFC, GS, JPM, LEH, MBI, MTG)has been tougher, as the the credit excess bubble is just plugging along and rates keep going lower. My bet is that a big bust (credit implosion and/or rate updraft)is coming there. It may eventually be a 10-sigma event. Higher interest rates are going to destroy a lot of participants, and people shouldn't delude themselves into thinking it (higher rates) won't happen. The MACD indicator that is a good INTERMEDIATE (not short) term tool is showing some major bearish divergences in the credit bubble names. Example:
stockcharts.com[l,a]daclniay[p][vc60][iUa12,26,9]&pref=G
stockcharts.com[l,a]daclniay[p][vc60][iUa12,26,9]&pref=G |
