California recall diary
By Christopher Parkes
Published: July 31 2003 18:05 | Last Updated: August 8 2003 12:06
The FT's Los Angeles correspondent, Christopher Parkes, is following the campaign to unseat governor Gray Davis, and he will be sharing his reflections as events unfold in this special on-line diary.
The carousel was whirling so fast, and so many were clambering aboard, that someone was bound to be thrown off and land on his face.
On Thursday it was Darrell Issa's turn.
Demonised by Democrats, his existence barely acknowledged by the Californian electorate, the San Diego Republican wept as he flourished his recall election candidacy papers, then -- figuratively at least -- threw them in the bin.
The congressman said he would stick around to support the recall and the Republican cause, before retiring back to his seat in the House of Representatives and matters of "national importance."
How Arnold Schwarzenegger would feel about a conservative like Issa standing behind him is an open question.
What is not in doubt is that on his showing so far, his chances of out-polling anyone on the ballot were slim indeed.
In a Los Angeles Times poll last month, voters were given a list of six potential candidates, including Arnie and Bill Simon: 4 per cent said they were likely to vote for Issa.
In the interim, he has come under fire for past brushes with the law (including events surrounding his admitted possession of a "little, teeny pistol"), and acknowledged in an interview that he has an IQ of "100 plus a little bit."
Even far from the spotlight, he has failed to distinguish himself. On a recent campaign visit to out-of-the-way Palm Desert, he expounded in fierce terms on the governor's failings. Gray Davis had "failed, cheated and lied."
Asked about his own qualifications, and plans, he replied: "I'm not going to get into it."
Apart from the sheer scale of the surprise, one of the most striking features of Arnold Schwarzenegger's recall candidacy shocker was his relaxed and confident manner. That was to be expected on the Jay Leno show.
He is no stranger to in-your-face cameras, and after all, he was being questioned by one of his most fawning fans.
Outside at his press conference, he was clearly tickled by his advisers' success in having convinced the media, analysts, pundits (and diarists) that he was out of the race.
But considering that the 56-year-old could be compromising his political future on a venture into the political unknown, risking his lucrative acting career (at 56 he is already pushing the age envelope), and inviting some pretty nasty attacks, he was remarkably cool.
He was, he said, ready to take anything the mudslingers might care to throw.
Also noteworthy was that he already looked and sounded like a politician: eyes and smile steady, looking attentively at his questioners.
Seemingly undistracted by the flock of fans a few yards away screaming "Arnie," he relished what amounted to a campaign launch publicity blitz that no amount of money could buy.
The conference videos were aired repeatedly around the world, interspersed with clips from the Leno show.
The images, as much as what he had to say, served to reinforce the popular perception that "Our Arnie" is a decent guy, a man of the people, with a sense of humour to boot.
Everyone in Los Angeles already knows it. Unlike most stars, he lives his life in the open. Scooting up and down Sunset Boulevard in one of his fleet of Hummers, he waves happily at passers-by.
He enjoys nothing so much as a cup of coffee and a chat at one of the west side's many streetside cafes.
Yet while he is off to a sparkling start, he has much to learn. In his role as a Hollywood star, media interviews are generally conducted according to strict rules. Questions must be submitted for vetting before entering The Presence, and the hack has five minutes to wrap things up.
In the rough and tumble world of politics, where nice guys finish last, he will enjoy no such protections.
As he says, he is ready to deal with any questions about his alleged zipper issues, but he has said nothing yet about the budget deficit, water apportionment, dead-in-the-water road projects or other crises looming or apparent in the state.
The fun could end as abruptly as it started in the heady atmosphere of NBC's Burbank studios.
Los Angeles, August 6: Send in the clowns
Never mind damning a person with faint praise, what about Dianne Feinstein's statement on Wednesday that damned Gray Davis with no praise at all.
The senator from California's words contained nary a hint of approval or appreciation for the self-proclaimed ?new Democrat? centrist governor who this week went cap in hand to recruit bodyguards from the AFL-CIO, the national labour union federation.
The AFL-CIO did not immediately offer Davis the $10m Davis he asked for to fund his campaign. But its proclamation that Democrats should stay out of the race was a clear warning that any rebels could expect short shrift if they expected union cash and backing in any future campaigns.
This is not to suggest the threats influenced the dignified Dianne, first lady of California politics.
Indeed, her statement was also remarkable for the absence of any advice or recommendations to lesser Democrats considering a run. It's main message was that the recall ?demonstrates that anyone with $1.5m can hire professional petition gatherers certain to produce enough signatures to force a future recall of any state elected officials.
?It sets a terrible precedent which ought to cause us all to think very carefully.? The implied message is the prospect of a know-nothing clown, or a dim-wit opportunist could take charge of the most populous state at a dark and dangerous time.
In the weeks of campaigning ahead, instead of getting to grips with its economic and security problems, California ?is going to be engaged in an election that is becoming more and more like a carnival every day.?
Gray Davis has turned to the courts in a fresh attempt to head off his recall ambushers at the pass. But it has taken a Silicon Valley entrepreneur to come up with a less tortuous method.
Stuart Vance has launched an effort to round up a posse of at least 1,000 Californians prepared to stand as candidates, arguing that such a number would overload the electoral system and make it crash.
"Run for governor yourself. Help extend the absurdity of this recall election to its logical extreme," he urges visitors on www.run-for-governor.org.
It is incumbent on all to tell proponents of the recall "that if they twist the system for their purposes,we the people will untwist it to stop them."
Mr Vance, a former executive with TGV Software and Network Alchemy, is disarmingly honest, about his chances. "If we had started several months ago, this initiative might be more effective," he says on his site.
"On the other hand,if we aren't willing to take action and put out effort ourselves, we get the government we deserve."
He says that balloting equipment is simply not designed to handle such a volume, and that a flood of wannabes would at least force a postponement.
According to official figures, 296 potential candidates had taken out candidacy papers by the close of business on Friday. And although no-one has yet formally filed to stand, there is a chance Mr Vance's goal may be reached by the time the lists close on August 9.
As a back-up tactic, he suggests people with the same name as figures prominent in the state should join in. "The more confusing the ballot, the more likely we are to affect the election," the site says.
The similarities between California?s best-loved burger and Arnold Schwarzenegger, its favourite burger from Graz, Austria, extend far beyond the beef factor. The In-n-Out burger ( www.In-n-Out.com ), a toothsome regional variant on the staple pattie, cooked to order and served with fresh-cut fries, leaves the competition eating dust.
Now Arnold is ready formally to abandon the competition for the California governorship, trailing a cloud which may mar his oft-professed political ambitions. He has been tinkering with the emotions of the electorate for two years and more.
Yes, he wants to be governor. No, it?s too soon. He?s still considering. His wife?s family, the Kennedys, might be upset. He?s got a film to promote, so leave him alone. In and out.
That?s Our Arnie, as he is known. If decisiveness is priority for anyone wanting to run California, then Herr Schwarzenegger has shown even less aptitude than inveterate ditherer Gray Davis. So our action hero needs to show a little more resolve, and come up with a convincing platform if he is to return convincingly to the fray in the future. As things stand, his catchline - "I?ll be back" - sounds more like a threat than a promise.
On the face of it, there is not much to find amusing in the Sav-us from Dav-us campaign, but it doesn't take much to send California's raucous radio talk show hosts into tittering fits.
The man variously known in this obnoxious milieu as Governor Gumby, Gray-Out Davis (remember the power cuts) or just plain Joe (his given name is Joseph), is being blasted with a round-the-clock barrage of ridicule.
The governor's attributes and tastes, ranging from his stiff hair to his unvarying dietary routine of tofu shakes for breakfast, and turkey "hold the mayo" sandwiches for lunch may or may not be good for a laugh.
But there's certainly something funny about his arithmetic.
Ten days ago, Kevin Shelley, secretary of state and electoral paymaster, repeated original estimates that the special election, including printing and distributing election information to 11m households, would cost taxpayers about $30m.
According to Davis, the price is now "upwards of $60m."
The origins of this mysterious attack of hyper-inflation remain unexplained. But it may have something to do with voter focus groups summoned by anti-recall forces.
Pressed on independent poll findings that suggested popular distaste for the recall increased in direct relation to its price, the guinea pigs responded with encouraging affirmative squeaks.
Not to be left out, Bill "Simple" Simon, a likely opponent, has come up with a bit of creative accounting of his own. According to his assessment of the state's fiscal chaos, California will start next year with a deficit of $17bn.
That came on the same day officials put the roll-over gap between outgoings and incomings at $8bn.
It may have been a slip of the tongue. Not the sort of thing one might expect of a seriously rich investment manager, but surely proof that the neophyte politician is quick on the uptake when it comes to the rules of the campaign game.
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