<Font size=5> Interesting unraveling?
<Font size=3>What’s in a name?
As we enter OpEx week, and with seven more weeks to go before the end of October, it’s time to step back and consider this market. What are we to make of this “secular bull”? First let’s consider where we are within the larger cycle. Generational manias peak in a Delusional top. From that top the market plunges to a Despair valuation low. Depending on such factors as demographics, this plunge may be interrupted by a secular bull rally. Such a phenomena occurred during the last secular bear and seems to be occurring now. Fueled by a sea of liquidity, greed is once more the dominant emotion. Hyped by Wall Street brokerage houses that keep raising “estimates” no matter what the valuation, the “game” continues
How do you characterize such a speculative market whose principal characteristic is hype? Consider Spekuliar. Moreover, this Spekuliar market after reaching a peak earlier this month, is now entering the period of seasonal weakness. Will its lack of a firm foundation result in an adjustment? Will sanity prevail over hype at these stratospheric valuations? Or will waves of liquidity “wash away all sins”? Now is the time to find out.
A convergence?
Two schools of thought exist on whether news influences the market. Some will say obviously. Coming from a more fundamental perspective, these people believe that the market is merely the sum of what all people think they know about upcoming events. Others, frequently of a more technical bent, believe “the market is going to do what it’s going to do”. And any news event will have an effect that is somewhere between zero and highly ephemeral. Many, in this latter category, also believe that cycles exist in the affairs of man. These cycles affect both economics and politics. For them, it no coincidence that the Despair point in the last secular bear occurred in December of ’74 – about midway between the forced resignation of a president in late summer, and an ignominious departure from Saigon in the spring.
As exhibited in this post
Message 19302086
politics is also entering a critical period. Between now and the end of October, we will know how successful the Admin’s “Crawford Strategy” will be. So, in both politics and the market, the “Caution Ahead” signs are apparent. The next seven weeks should be (in the Chinese sense) interesting.
JMO
lurqer |
