factors:
1. grade vs scale-tonnage
2. anglo-plats acceptance criteria/need for ounces..etc.
3. anglo-plats desire to make a mine, and ROI concerns
4. scale of resource. how beeg is it? now, later
5. profitability of largest indicated tonnage-grade
6. overburden/costs/environment
7. capex/grindability/dynamite factor milling costs
8. marketing concerns
9. pit scale, width, length, headings.
10. high grade or starter pit.
1. grade 1.5 to 2 grams pgms pd-pt-gold indicated 19 to 25 US dollars per tonne metric. 35,000 tonnes open pit indicated minimum for that grade. gold is .01, the Pt Pd ratio is 1:4. So its 25% Pt. The rest Pd. All other PGM's unknown.
2. Anglo plats probably wants 2 million ounces to start up at that grade.
3. Anglo plats probably wants ounces, for political reasons, spread risk, high price. First Open pit platinum mine. Will proceed slowly and carefully.
4. Resource is 1,200,000 ounces now indicated at perhaps 1.5 grams total in 3 metals Pt-Pd-gold. Strike of known mineralization and surface grabs, and present hit-rate indicates uniform body out 10 kilometres at 200 foot width, so probable ounces may go from 2 to 4 million ounces to 500 feet deep, perhaps beyond substantially.
5. profitability at present grade and known recovery from tests indicates perhaps 6 to 9 dollars US beyond cash costs. This is perhaps 4 years to payback. PFN is carried at 35% of profits to production.
6. overburden is shallow and ore comes to surface with uniform grade. Grade may get better at depth. No overwhelming environmental concerns. In a mine friendly area.
7. capex may be 250 to 300 million. Or less. This is an unkown area. All they are doing is making cons and selling to Inco or Falco, or putting in salty on the lakes. In fact though the entire con can be treated cheaply there by ammonia process and plat cons made into higher grade compounds. Grinding, and blasting is on high side as ore is tough and a bit abrasive normally. This ore seems quite alterered, and may be softer than the north American Palladium ore. Costs cannot be much higher than 12 dollars per tonne. (North American Palladium's costs now)
8. Market is not bad. Prices are high. Palladium is shaky but good enough price. Buyers are 40 miles away. Tidewater (Great Lakes are 80 miles away). Large market in Ford, about 200 miles away by rail, or road.
9. Pits would operate on mulitiple headings. 5 headings would make 50,000 tons possible per day. Depth would probably max out at 900 feet or less. Length of mineralized area may be 10 miles.
10. Higher grades, up to 5 grams over 150 feet in width may exist below 500 feet. All drilling to date has been shallow.
There may be a high grade core at about 7 grams or better that could be semi bulk mined underground to provide cheaper capex cash flow. (high grades of narrow width, up to 29 grams Pt-Pd are seen in core) This is not a starter pit, but may allow cash low for less money out for Anglo. The mineralized pit length may go to ten miles. Hit rate and grade over width is very uniform and predictable.
EC<:-}
Only negative is Anglo has to make the decision. |
