Helix Technology, a cold play on semiconductor equipment Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Helix Technology, a cold play on semiconductor equipment

HELX 36.78

+3.3%

Nov 21 4:00 PM EST

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To: PuddleGlum who started this subject	10/28/2003 8:00:59 PM
From: mopgcw	Read Replies (1) of 1227

Up strongly today on TSMC guidance: GS US SEMI EQUIPMENT: WE`RE ALMOST OUT OF THE WOODS - TSMC CAPEX ST NEG/ LT POS Summary: TSMC guided down Q4 capacity utilization on its earnings call, which we noted as a possibility in our weekly. This should disappoint investors expecting higher Q4 utilization to force TSM to place large orders in Q4. TSM also stated that it will not ramp volume production for Fab 14 before the end of '04. This should obviate what we believe to be inaccurate competitor calls that TSM started placing meaningful Fab 14 orders. We believe Fab 14 orders are more likely in early '04 and those expecting TSM to drive upside to Q4 orders will be disappointed. On the positive side, TSM guided '04 capex up "significantly." Mgmt said that long-term capex/sales for the foundry industry is 25-30%. Applying this figure to the '04 sales est for TSMC implies capex of +$2b, within the range of our $2.5b est. Stocks likely to react positively to TSM's upbeat long-term comments but we remind investors that Q4 still looks choppy for semi equipment. We wouldn't be more short-term aggressive on the stocks until expectations for AMAT's Nov. 12th report become more realistic.

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