Helix Technology, a cold play on semiconductor equipment Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Helix Technology, a cold play on semiconductor equipment

HELX 36.78

+3.3%

Nov 21 4:00 PM EST

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To: PuddleGlum who started this subject	12/4/2003 7:01:14 PM
From: mopgcw	Read Replies (1) of 1227

GS US SEMI EQUIPMENT: BOSTON BUS TOUR CONFIRMS IMPROVING CYCLICAL RAMP Summary: We hosted a very upbeat bus tour in Boston on Wednesday during which we met with MKS, Mykrolis, LTX, Analog Devices, and Helix. The trip confirmed that business is improving as the semi equipment industry continues to experience a cyclical recovery. Several themes emerged during the trip including: (1) A rollover in consumer demand emerging as a potential indicator of a cyclical peak, (2) Headcount being added as business ramps, and (3) Aggressive peak margin estimates - we believe that the required operating margin drop through needed in order to meet peak company and Street targets make peak projections a stretch. We continue to believe that investors should own the semi equipment stocks with a 3-month horizon as we do not believe that they will peak for the cycle until AMAT reaches 15% EBITDA margins (our proxy for normalized industry cash flow), which is likely to occur in mid-February.

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