Helix Technology, a cold play on semiconductor equipment Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Helix Technology, a cold play on semiconductor equipment

HELX 36.78

+3.3%

Nov 21 4:00 PM EST

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To: mopgcw who wrote (1114)	1/5/2004 12:27:00 AM
From: mopgcw	Read Replies (1) of 1227

GS US SEMI EQUIP WEEKLY: OUTLOOK FOR 04, IN WITH A BANG, OUT WITH A WHIMPER Summary: Given that we are entering the final full week of 2003, we wanted to take an opportunity to update investors on our thoughts on the stocks and the industry as we head into 2004. (1) Expect stocks to perform well in early 2004 but look for the Street to start discounting the end of the upturn as we move through the year and the industry moves beyond normalized EBITDA, (2) We believe it is too late to be overly bullish on the stocks but we believe upward estimate revisions during January reporting season can drive one final move in the group, (3) Semi equipment is a 5% CAGR industry (i.e. purely cyclical) even if we assume 50% year-over-year growth in 2004 and 2005! (4) We strongly prefer the front-end vs. the back-end stocks on a relative basis as we believe the deflationary trends plaguing the back-end will become more apparent as we move throughout the year and drive underperformance in the back-end stocks, and (5) News, Events and Price Performance.

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