Helix Technology, a cold play on semiconductor equipment Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Helix Technology, a cold play on semiconductor equipment

HELX 36.78

+3.3%

Nov 21 4:00 PM EST

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To: PuddleGlum who started this subject	4/14/2004 7:50:59 PM
From: mopgcw	Read Replies (1) of 1227

GS US SEMI EQUIPMENT FIRST-TAKE: THOUGHTS ON INTEL CAPEX Intel made no changes to its 2004 capital spending budget on its earnings report last night (forecast $3.6 to $4.0 billion). Bullish investors will argue that Intel spent only $680 million in capex in the first-quarter, a run-rate well below the full year spending levels. Given that management highlighted that they don't anticipate a change to full-year capex plans, this would imply higher quarterly capital spending as we move throughout the year. Bears will argue that most of the orders have already been placed for 2004 capex and therefore quarterly cash expenditures are not a relevant metric to forecast spending patterns as we move throughout the year. Recall that capex is dollars spent not orders placed. Additionally, bears will argue that given the increasing inventory levels, Intel seems unlikely to be capacity constrained as we move through 2004 thus limiting the possibility of capex upside. No change to our view that it is too late in the cycle to be overweight semi equipment stocks.

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