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Technology Stocks : Helix Technology, a cold play on semiconductor equipment
HELX 35.59-0.2%Nov 20 4:00 PM EST
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To: mopgcw who wrote (1141)4/19/2004 7:35:39 AM
From: mopgcw  Read Replies (1) of 1227
 
GS US SEMI EQUIPMENT
FIRST-TAKE: THOUGHTS
ON SAMSUNG CAPEX
On its earnings call last night, Samsung reiterated its previous 2004 semi (including
DRAM, FPD, and system LSI) capex forecast of 6.97 trillion won ($5.9 billion
USD). Samsung spent a significant portion of its full year capex budget in CQ1,
about 35% of the total. Bulls will likely argue that this above trend-line spending
implies a capex increase as we move through H2'04. Bears will likely argue that the
front-half loaded capex implies a significant slowdown in H2'04. We have two main
points: (1) it is too early to speculate on a potential capex increase until end-demand
into 2005 becomes more concrete, and (2) actual capex spending is much less
relevant then sequential order patterns, which are a better forward looking indicator
for the semi equipment companies (recall that capex is dollars spent not orders
placed).
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