Peter,
A few of us are finally getting around to dissecting these in the "Biotech Lock-Up Expiration Hell: Wave II" thread (y'all please excuse the cumbersome title). Help appreciated; it's time to flesh out those summer shopping lists . . .
Subject 54824
Most of these have the out "too quick with a bit much cheap involvement by the VC" flavor, that the previous wave did. As such, lock-up expiration could be brutal. I'll admit I haven't looked closely at the capital structures yet, though. Mostly trying to find the promising science, or savvy inlicensings (since that's the vogue these days) and look at the business plans. Haven't delved into option grants and stockholders equity portions of the balance sheet yet.
Personal frontrunners are CYTK and CGTK, because of a bias towards interesting science. Others in that category, with less convincing science, perhaps, include the much pummeled XCYT and ALNY. I find the latter a bit more compelling for their IP (but it's going to be a battle, for sure), though it's very early there.
I'm vaguely aware that others have taken notice of ANDS' Hepatitis program, but haven't seen any opinions or digging.
TRCA struck me as a one trick pony with a niche market. Low risk, as you say, but low reward, IMO. Can SNTS market their better mousetrap PPI by themselves? I have my doubts. Makes me think of NPS and Preos. They've chosen to go it alone for now, and the market, perhaps rightly, has punished them for it. I see parallels.
Personally, I'm souring on oncology plays that don't feature small molecules. The antibodies just cost too much for too little benefit. Maybe purveyors of low cost antibody/large molecule production methods can eventually help (a private New Hampshire company working with yeast comes to mind, glycofi.com ).
That's one strike against CancerVax, the other is that David Hale has yet to really have any success in the clinic that I can recall. Possible short candidate, IMO, but haven't looked closely. EYET seems way ahead of itself; I agree with Ian's take that QLTI is a more serious competitor than the market seems to think. And that all those injections have their risks, which the market will have to face up to eventually. Hence the short.
Anyhow, SNTS, CYTK, and to a lesser extent, CGTK have threads with some research on them. From the BLUE HP II portfolio (while it lasts) you can hit the discussion link to get to them.
Cheers, Tuck |
