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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (17590)	8/11/2004 12:07:11 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) of 110194

Virtually everything I read about China points to Train Wreck: bottlenecks, shortages (down to fumes, but can't procure), energy outages, huge inefficiences, crippling expense moving material around, Message 20399790 businesses bleeding loses (furniture analyst on CNBC discussed Chinese cost difficulties this AM). It looks like Japan and Germany in late 1944, literally a scavenger wartime economy. I really think there's a good 2% output contraction underway this summer, and will get worse. The GDP number still looks inflated because they've put up all this spec housing (largely unsold) that Xie alluded to here, but the reality is something different. Message 20400043 My prediction for global GDP 3rd quarter: minus 1% (and only because the US housing market keeps misallocating new construction, for now), 4th quarter: minus 3%. It will be interesting to see if WMT addresses sourcing difficulties tomorrow. Nobody seems to worry about any of this though.

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