That is the $64 question. Zeev thinks yes. I don't know. What I can say is that I have owned some of this stock throughout the dip, not knowing when the true recovery would begin. I have bought and sold some additional trading shares, but I have recently taken a very heavy position. This is partly as a result of the fact that I think the recovery is almost here (the company said Q4), and partly due to a lack of other good ideas. <vbg>
Anyway, the stock could go to 25, or even 23. But I will be holding tight. With AMAT I sold out way too early thinking it would have one more dip when the street figured out that sales wouldn't reach 1996 levels again until 1998. I was right about the recovery, but not about Wall Street's farsightedness. Fortunately I held some other stuff in the semi-equipment industry, though, like PRIA, KLAC, BRKS, HELX, and ETEC. (I have made some money on AMAT and NVLS recently, but believe it or not, it has all been on the short side - though the pull backs are never as big as I expect).
This time, I will be as patient as necessary. In fact I was a bit scared when the stock recently went almost to 40 - I had sold part of my shares at 34 1/2 and I was beginning to think it wouldn't come back for me. Zeez controls this stock like a puppet though, and he commanded that it should come back to close the gap, and it did give me another chance (though it hasn't quite closed the gap - at least not yet).
When this stock hits 100, will it matter that much whether you bought at 25 or 27?
Carl |
