Ask DrBob Message Board - Msg: 20481926

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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask DrBob

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To: Drbob512 who wrote (87432)	9/3/2004 1:35:32 AM
From: $Mogul	Read Replies (1) of 100058

That was the top and the run into the RNC as well as a lot of the pre-earnings run. INTC had horrible guidence, even worse then the street had forcasted IHMO. Only thing that does concern me is the SOX index. If you pull up a 2 year chart it is still in a uptrend and at support, unless of course it breaks, and I thnk it will. The NASDAQ cannot do anything without the Semi's. Wondering how this hurricane is going to affect next months retail numbers. Not priced in IMHO. Not to mention that todays comps were horrible. Not sure if you have noticed but mkt. is not looking/ peering into the future very well as it historically has. Again, no one is on the other side of these trades. Also the computers (program trading) is at very high % levels currently. That will change when they shut down the computer now that the drivers are returning and the brain surgery starts. The forces that be are artificially propping up this mkt, and with light volume and in the dead of summer it is not hard to do. When things do not make sense such as the transports so strong in light of historically high oil (It has been almost a month now) when is this going to sink in to the equity mkt? Very soon I feel. Not to mention when Oil rallies the mkt rallies and when oil falls the mkt still rallies... something not right, but then again no one is really home right now. You have to go back to all you know and say wait..I know better then this from all my years and know that this will work itself out the way it always does. Don't forget the winners are the ones that can use there skills to project the future but trade on what they see. You do a good job at it and that is why you are a successfull trader. I did comment in mid Aug. Message 20420161 that I saw a bounce off the lows into the RNC. It was a definite fixture in my mind. Also, the mkt. powers that be want to see a bush re-election so I feel the mkt in the last hour the mkt. basically clapped loud and showed appreciation for the speech later that night. (Even though I feel that Bush will be a detriment to the mkt. in the macro), and don't take this as a personal political preference, it's not. It is just what the pulse of the mkt is thiking. Heck the Dow bounced 6% in a few weeks. If you look at historical presidential facts or my previous posts on presidential elections it will make sense. The RNC created a mkt mood to the upsided for the Rep. and the mkt has closed the gap to say it acknowledges it. As the election gets closer the uncertainty will set in again. On light volume you have to treat these types of days as holidays. The patients are running the asylum. Keep the great work Dr. If I had more time I would post more. $Mogul

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