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Technology Stocks : Helix Technology, a cold play on semiconductor equipment
HELX 35.15+0.1%Nov 4 4:00 PM EST

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From: mopgcw10/12/2004 12:22:49 AM
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GS US SEMI EQUIP: TEL ORDER MISS
IMPLIES AMAT CQ3 ORDERS -15% Q-Q VS.
+5% GUID.
Tokyo Electron, the 2nd largest equipment-maker behind Applied, negatively
preannounced its CQ3 orders. Total orders (including semi equip & LCD) were -24% q-q
with semi equip orders down about 10% q-q and LCD orders down about 80% q-q. We
believe that TEL's announcement has significant negative implications for AMAT, which
also competes in the LCD equipment market. Based on the weakness that TEL
highlighted in both the semi equip and LCD businesses, we now believe that AMAT's
Oct-qtr (CQ3) orders could be -15% q- q vs. +5% q-q guidance and flattish Street
expectations. We do not believe there is revenue/earnings risk in CQ3 due to SAB-101,
which allows AMAT to recognize sales on systems previously shipped when business was
more robust. The negative news from TEL is an important first implication of a
significantly weaker-than-expected front-end order environment. We believe that either
the magnitude or the duration of the current downturn is likely to surprise investors and
drive the stocks to cycle lows. AMAT is rated IL/N.

I, Jim Covello, hereby certify that all of the views expressed
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