From Heinz after reading today's Roach and this post
Message 21156081
i think China will suffer a bust...but that's no big deal (i.e., i
doubt it'll bring down their government). when the Soviet Union
collapsed, it was a communist country with no private property or
private enterprise, completely run down (i've seen the Eastern Bloc
countries with my own eyes)....absolutely not comparable to the China
of today (not even remotely).
all developing capitalist economies have busts now and then, often
pretty bad ones. it's only natural. as for the arms race, it may be
worth remembering that China is the creditor, and the US is the
borrower these days. Reagan could 'afford' his military extravaganza
since he produced the first mega-budget and trade deficits, and the
disinflation debt build-up/boom was only just beginning. the situation
now is quite different....the debt mountain is already at record
highs, and the deflationary winter has begun. no more extravaganzas
will be possible in coming years.
also, if one looks closely, China is moving toward capitalism and
freedom, while the West is moving inexorably toward tyranny.
empires (and the US of today IS one) always end with a combination of
military overstretch and huge foreign and domestic indebtedness
becoming unsupportable. the bigger picture historical record speaks
for itself in that regard.
and China is the 'only enemy'? that's nonsense. only a bunch of
neoconservative ideologues still thinks of China as an 'enemy'. China
is an essential cog in the international division of labor....the West
and China engage in 100ds of billions dollars worth of trade every
year...truly funny 'enemies'.
what can not be denied is that China's rise changes the supposed
'unipolarity' of the geopolitical situation....iow, the US won't be
the 'only' superpower much longer. but so what...at least we'll get
fewer unilateral wars based on lies that way. besides, if the European
Union wanted to become a military superpower it could do so without
breaking a sweat...but what for? military adventures (i.e., wars of
choice, as opposed to defending oneself) never bring about the desired
results anyway...they're always a huge waste of blood and treasure in
the end. to engage in that nonsense just so one can look
self-righteous is a peculiar American government disease...the rest of
the world simply seems not interested.
as for China's beef with Taiwan, this has been going on forever and a
day. since the mainland is reforming, it is quite likely that one day
Taiwan will join up in a loose federation. there's of course some
danger due to Deng's 'one child' policiy, which has produced a surfeit
of unmarried young men in China. they represent revolutionary
potential, or failing that, cannon fodder for a war.
by the way, i strongly dispute that Reagan's useless overspending on
military hardware brought down the Soviets....if one has read Mises,
well, it was known since the 1920's that communism would eventually
collapse on account of its internal contradictions. an economy lacking
free market prices to allocate resources efficiently is simply fated
to end that way....regardless of the actions of others. |
