GS US Semi Equip Q1 Preview ?
Managements will be bullish but DRAM likely to drive another leg down Reporting season kicks off this week and we expect management teams will continue to be very bullish in their outlook, reiterating their call that we have reached the bottom of the cycle but we don?t find this to be a credible view. With memory, especially DRAM, representing a disproportionate amount of order books and the supply/demand analysis of the DRAM industry suggesting that DRAM prices will continue to decline in the near team, we believe companies could ultimately miss their CQ2 order guidance as some of the expected DRAM orders may not materialize. Further, with foundry utilization rates already low and set to decline again in CQ2, we believe the industry?s hope for a rebound in foundry orders in H2?05 is overly optimistic. We continue to look for another fundamental leg down to fix the supply/demand run rate in the semi industry to get more constructive on the stocks. We maintain a Cautious coverage view.
Q1 ORDERS LIKELY DOWN ABOUT 5% TO 10% SEQUENTIALLY. We generally expect the Semi Equipment companies to report revenues and earnings that are in-line with guidance, with revenues on average for the large front-end companies approximately flat sequentially. We also expect Q1 orders to be in-line with guidance, down on average approximately 5% to 10% sequentially. We believe that orders during the quarter were likely driven by DRAM and flash memory customers, with memory orders accounting for about 50% of Q1 order books.
Q2 ORDERS LIKELY GUIDED FLAT TO UP SLIGHTLY SEQUENTIALLY BUT WE EXPECT ACTUAL Q2 ORDERS TO BE DOWN 5% SEQUENTIALLY. We expect the equipment companies to guide orders flat to up about 5% sequentially in Q2, which we believe is in-line with Street expectations. We expect actual Q2 orders to come in down about 5% sequentially, as we believe some DRAM orders that are projected for Q2 may not materialize. In addition, we expect orders from the foundries and Japanese chipmakers to decline slightly sequentially in 2Q and to be only partially offset by sequential order increases from Samsung (for flash and DRAM), likely the last slug of capacity additions from a few DRAM customers (including Powerchip), and Intel. We believe DRAM orders which the equipment companies expect in CQ2 (and which we expect will be included in the guidance) are at risk if/when our view that DRAM prices will move to near $2.00 during CQ2 materializes. As we highlighted during our recent trip to Asia, while the DRAM companies all remain adamant that they will continue to place large orders, we believe these orders are based on an assumption of DRAM prices rebounding in CQ2.
If/when DRAM prices continue to drop towards $2.00, we believe that the current bullish capacity addition outlook from the DRAM companies will change very quickly.
MANAGEMENTS LIKELY TO AGAIN PREMATURELY CALL A BOTTOM IN FUNDAMENTALS. Equipment managements have historically tended to prematurely call a bottom in fundamentals and we believe this downturn is shaping up to be no different from previous downturns. Managements began to call a bottom during the Q4'04 mid-quarter update season. They reiterated their bullish commentary at our Technology Symposium during the end of February as well as at several competitor conferences throughout the first quarter. We expect the equipment companies to remain bullish on their upcoming earnings calls and to continue to "jump the gun" in calling a bottoming in the cycle.
A look back at previous downturns highlights that Semi Equipment companies have historically tended to be too aggressive in anticipating a recovery in business. Applied Materials, for example, guided for a 10% sequential decline in calendar 4Q2000 orders on its 3Q2000 earnings call, but actual fourth-quarter 2000 orders ended up coming in down 33% sequentially. Management chose not to issue order guidance for calendar 1Q2001 on its 4Q2000 earnings call. In 1Q2001, orders came in down 44% sequentially and the company indicated that it believed orders had bottomed and guided for flat 2Q2001 orders. Second-quarter 2001 orders ended up coming in down 10% sequentially and management guided for a modest recovery in orders in 3Q2001. Orders ended up coming in down another 9% sequentially in 3Q2001. Following the fundamental head fake in 2002, orders once again fell short of expectations in 2Q2002, up 5% sequentially versus guidance for a 10% to 15% sequential increase. Orders declined 12% sequentially in 3Q2002 versus guidance for a decline of 5% to 15% sequentially. Orders then declined another 35% sequentially in 4Q2002 versus guidance for a 20% sequential decline before eventually bottoming in the 1Q2003 time frame.
A similar pattern can be seen by examining Lam Research's orders and guidance during the last downturn. During the beginning of the 2001-2002 downturn, the company guided its 1Q2001 orders down 35% sequentially. Actual 1Q2001 orders came in down 60% sequentially and the company then guided for a flat to slight increase in orders sequentially (+5% to 10%) in 2Q2001. Actual 2Q2001 orders ended up coming in down 14% sequentially, with guidance calling for flat to down 10% sequential order growth in 3Q2001. Actual 3Q2001 orders came in down 25% sequentially and guidance called for orders to be flat to up slightly in 4Q2001. Actual 4Q2001 orders ended up coming in down 15% sequentially.
Finally, the same trend can be seen by looking at Novellus' guidance as compared with actual order results during the last downturn. Novellus issued guidance calling for a 30% to 35% sequential decline in 1Q2001 orders. In 1Q2001, actual orders ended up coming in down 58% sequentially and management guided for a 5% sequential increase in orders in 2Q2001. In 2Q2001, orders came in slightly light of guidance but were essentially flat sequentially and guidance called for another 10% sequential decline in orders in 3Q2001. Third-quarter 2001 actual orders came in down 41% sequentially and guidance called for flat to up about 20% sequential order growth in 4Q2001. The company lowered its order guidance to down 15% sequentially to flat on its mid-quarter update call. Actual 4Q2001 orders ended up coming in down 11% sequentially. Once the head-fake upturn of 2002 ended, guidance called for a sequential decline of 9% in 3Q2002 orders. Actual orders came in lower than guidance in 3Q2002, down another approximately 25% sequentially, before eventually improving in 4Q2002.
Given that the equipment companies started calling the bottom in CQ4'04 and that they are now calling for a bottom in CQ2'05 even though memory is currently representing 50% of total order books and the outlook for the memory sector is quite choppy, we believe this downturn is shaping up very similarly to the last one in terms of management's ability to objectively call the cycle.
WE EXPECT WEAK DRAM AND FOUNDRY ORDERS IN H2'05. We believe that the current downturn is being driven by excess supply, and the supply-demand imbalance is particularly pronounced in the DRAM segment where customers continue to add significant excess capacity. During our tour of Asia in late March, each DRAM customer with whom we met indicated that they believe industry-wide DRAM bit supply growth in 2005 will only be about 40% - 45%. Each company with whom we met is simultaneously planning to add at least 65% and as much as 130% bit supply growth in 2005. While a few DRAM suppliers are not expected to grow bits significantly in 2005 (i.e. Infineon), we believe that overall DRAM supply growth in 2005 is a minimum of 55% compared to demand of 40-45%. This very large imbalance will likely create a persistent weakness in memory pricing and ultimately lead to a slowdown in equipment orders in H2'05. Many DRAM customers are already acknowledging that 2006 is likely to be one of the toughest years in the history of the DRAM segment given the tremendous amount of capacity that is being added. We would expect DRAM customers to begin slowing down their equipment orders during CQ2 if/when we are correct in assuming that DRAM Average Selling Prices (ASPs) will move toward $2.00 from their current level of slightly over $2.50. Further, while many argue that foundry orders are likely to increase in H2'05 and offset potential declines in DRAM orders, we would argue otherwise. First, we believe (and the foundry customers support our view) that foundry capex budgets are front-half loaded in 2005. In other words, most of the orders for the foundry 2005 capex budgets have already been placed. Second, the foundry customers have indicated that absent a meaningful pick-up in end-demand in late 2005, they are unlikely to place any meaningful orders with the equipment companies in H2'05.
The foundries are indicating that their reluctance to place significant orders with the equipment vendors is being driven by low utilization rates, which are in turn negatively impacting their margins a nd profitability. We believe that UMC's capacity utilization rate will be about 50% to 55% in Q2, down from 60% in Q1, and TSMC's capacity utilization rate will be in the low 70% range in Q2, down from 78% in Q1.
THE SEMI EQUIPMENT STOCKS ARE TRADING AT RICH VALUATIONS. The semi equipment stocks are down about 7% YTD but we still believe that the stocks are expensive on both our estimates of current full cycle normalized earnings and normalized free cash flow.
Applied Materials, for example, is trading at 32X our estimate of current full cycle (2003-2006) normalized earnings. This is approximately 2X the market multiple for a company in an industry that has grown at a 1% CAGR over the last two cycles and that has experienced approximately 400 basis points of operating margin erosion from the 2000 cycle peak to the recent cycle peak in 2004.
Similarly, Lam Research is trading at 24X our estimate of normalized earnings, Novellus Systems is trading at 38X our estimate of normalized earnings, and KLA-Tencor is trading at 32X our estimate of normalized earnings. We believe this analysis highlights that the stocks are likely to move lower if/when the Street realizes that the downturn is likely to persist for another several quarters.
The stocks are also pricing in very high long-term free cash flow growth rates. We use our normalized free cash flow-based valuation methodology to understand what free cash flow growth rate the market is discounting in the current stock prices. In our opinion, the market is currently pricing in extremely aggressive free cash flow growth rates of about 8% to 9%, especially considering that the growth rate utilized in this analysis is in perpetuity.
We find this analysis particularly interesting in that it highlights that the market is pricing in similar long term free cash flow growth rates for the large front-end stocks. Many investors argue that Lam, for instance, is less expensive than the other stocks on EPS. Interestingly, because the stock has a higher beta than the other front-end stocks and hence the company's WACC is higher, when this is taken into account the stock is actually trading at a slightly higher valuation on free cash flow compared to its peers.
LAM RESEARCH (LRCX; IL/C) EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS. Lam Research will report March-quarter (third fiscal quarter 2005) earnings on April 13 after the market close. We model CQ1 revenues of $350 million (down 8% sequentially) and earnings per share of $0.44, versus the Street consensus earnings per share estimate of $0.43. We forecast March-quarter orders of $350 million (down 10% sequentially) vs. management's guidance for a 15% to 20% sequential order decline.
We expect management be typically bullish on the upcoming earnings call, and to guide orders approximately flat to up slightly sequentially in the June-quarter. We believe the company will highlight its expectation that memory customers will remain aggressive in H2'05. As we highlighted earlier, we expect DRAM orders to fall off in H2'05 and believe that some DRAM orders that are expected in Q2 may not materialize. We are therefore forecasting June-quarter bookings of $335 million (-4% sequentially).
NOVELLUS SYSTEMS (NVLS; IL/C) EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS. Novellus will report March-quarter earnings on April 18 after the market close. We model Q1 revenues of $340 million (flat sequentially) with earnings per share of $0.22, in-line with the Street consensus earnings per share estimate. We also project Q1 net orders of $300 million, down 9% sequentially. We expect the company to guide for Q2 net orders of approximately $315 million (up 5% sequentially), but we do expect that the company could miss that number if/when we are correct that some of the DRAM orders included in that guidance will not be placed due to what we expect will be continued weakness in DRAM pricing.
Recall that Novellus raised its shipment and revenue guidance on its Q1 mid-quarter update, but indicated that EPS will be lower than Q4'04 (despite the same revenue level) because of significant gross margin erosion. We expect margin pressure at Novellus to persist and we believe that the Street has gotten ahead of itself in expecting imminent margin improvement from new product introductions, as we believe that the company's new products won't likely gain significant traction for at least another few quarters. TERADYNE (TER; U/C) EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS. Teradyne is reporting Q1 earnings on April 19, with a conference call held the following morning at 10:00 AM ET. We forecast Q1 revenues of $300 million (down 20% sequentially) with a LPS of $0.18, vs. the Street LPS of $0.19. While Teradyne does not provide explicit order guidance, we forecast Q1 gross orders of $280 million, down 6% sequentially. We forecast Q2 bookings of about $260 million, down 7% sequentially.
We expect Teradyne's Q1 results and Q2 outlook to be weak, as our checks from our tour of Asia during the last week of March lead us to believe that one of Teradyne's biggest customers placed no orders in Q1 and likely intends to place no orders again in Q2. Our checks further suggest that Teradyne is likely losing share to Agilent, as Agilent's 93k tester is better able to test PCI Express devices. We view this as a potential longer-term concern for Teradyne, as the PCI Express transition is anticipated by the company to drive growth. Teradyne's package and test house customers appear to be more disciplined in managing their capex in 2005, with ASE Test, for example, cutting its 2005 capex to $350 million from about $780 million in 2004, and indicating that it may underspend even this lower budget in 2005. We believe this portends several quarters of continued weak business conditions at Teradyne, with a significant rebound in semi test orders unlikely in the near-term.
ATMI (ATMI; IL/C) EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS. ATMI is reporting March-quarter earnings on April 20. We model first-quarter revenues of $65 million (flat sequentially) with earnings per share of $0.19, versus the Street consensus estimate of $0.20. Recall that ATMI's business tracks leading edge wafer starts as opposed to capex (recall that the company divested its capex driven businesses in 2004). Management indicated at the end of February (during the Goldman Sachs Technology Symposium) that its customer indications for Q2 global wafer starts called for an increase of 4% to 5% sequentially. However, we would expect Q2 wafer starts to decline sequentially with leading edge wafer starts to be a bit more robust. While ATMI doesn't provide official guidance, we would therefore expect the company to indicate that Q2 wafer starts are expected to be flat to up slightly sequentially, a downtick from what it had been saying on the conference circuit during the quarter.
FORMFACTOR (FORM; OP/C) EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS. FormFactor will report March-quarter earnings on April 20 after the market close. We model Q1 revenues of $48 million (up 4% sequentially) with earnings per share of $0.16 versus the Street consensus earnings per share estimate of $0.10 (which we believe includes the impact of several one-time items related to the bring-up of the company's new manufacturing facility that we exclude from our EPS estimate). We also estimate first-quarter orders of $41 million, flat sequentially.
We believe that continued tooling cycles related to technology transitions in the DRAM industry (including the DDR2 transition which our checks indicate is progressing) will allow FormFactor to report flat to slight sequential growth in revenues over the next several quarters. We believe that the company's revenue strength makes it an interesting opportunity compared to other semi equipment companies, which we expect will experience significant revenue declines if we are correct that the fundamental environment is likely to worsen over the coming quarters.
ADVANCED ENERGY (AEIS; U/C) EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS. We forecast Q1 revenues of $84 million (down 5% sequentially) with a loss per share of $0.06, in-line with the Street consensus loss per share estimate. We believe that the near-term outlook appears flattish for the subcomponent companies, as semi equipment shipment levels have held in thus far in 2005. That said, we expect a deteriorating fundamental environment in H2'05 for the subcomponent companies, as we expect semi equipment shipments to decline as the industry soaks up the excess capacity that continues to be added.
Further, we remain concerned about the company's balance sheet, as we believe that Advanced Energy needs to raise approximately $150 million (possibly through a convertible note offering) to repay two convertible notes (one in the amount of $121.5 million due in September 2006 at a conversion price of $29.83 and the other in the amount of $66.2 million due in November 2006 at a conversion price of $49.53).
MKS INSTRUMENTS (MKSI; IL/C) EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS. MKS is reporting earnings on April 26. We model Q1 revenues of $120 million (down 8% sequentially ) and earnings per share of $0.11, versus the Street consensus earnings per share estimate of $0.10. As we indicated for Advanced Energy, we believe that the near-term outlook appears flattish for the subcomponent companies, as semi equipment shipment levels have held in thus far in 2005. That said, we expect a deteriorating fundamental environment in H2'05 for the subcomponent companies, as we expect semi equipment shipments to decline as the industry soaks up the excess capacity that continues to be added.
KLA-TENCOR (KLAC; OP/C) EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS. KLA-Tencor is reporting March-quarter (third fiscal quarter 2005) earnings on April 28 after the market close. We model revenues of $530 million (essentially flat sequentially) with earnings per share of $0.55, versus the Street consensus earnings estimate of $0.56. We model calendar Q1 gross orders of $460 million (down 7% sequentially), at the midpoint of company's guidance for orders of down 15% to up 5% sequentially. Recall that the June-quarter is KLA's fiscal year-end so the company typically guides June-quarter orders higher sequentially. We are therefore modeling 2CQ orders of $500 million (up 9% sequentially).
We would expect KLA's P&L to hold up better than its front-end semi equipment peers over the coming quarter given both the company's high levels of deferred revenues (about $610 million) and significant backlog (about $760 million) as well as its exposure to technology transitions, which tend to occur even during downturns. That said, we believe that KLA is also likely to experience declining fundamentals in H2'05 as the company is exposed to the DRAM segment (like its peers), which we expect to be weak.
BROOKS AUTOMATION (BRKS-IL/C) EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS. We model calendar first-quarter revenues of $120 million (up 2% sequentially) with earnings per share of $0.08, versus the Street consensus earnings per share estimate of $0.07. We model March-quarter gross orders of $110 million (up 8% sequentially). Management does not provide official order guidance, but we expect orders to be flattish in the June quarter, as we believe that semi equipment shipment levels have held up relatively well thus far in 2005 (about 50% of Brooks' business is tied to semi equipment shipments). That said, we expect semi equipment shipments to deteriorate in H2'05 as the industry soaks up the excess capacity that continues to be added. We therefore believe that Brooks' business is likely to be negatively impacted in H2'05.
AXCELIS TECHNOLOGIES (ACLS; IL/C) EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS. Axcelis is reporting March-quarter earnings on May 4. We model revenues of $100 million (up 6% sequentially) with earnings per share of $0.05, versus the Street consensus earnings per share estimate of $0.04. We Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 11 Analyst Comment April 10, 2005 model Q1 gross orders of $90 million (up 3% sequentially), excluding the Sumitomo Eaton Nova (SEN) joint venture. While Axcelis does not provide official order guidance, we currently expect orders to be down about 5% sequentially in 2Q2005, to about $85 million.
Axcelis has significant exposure to Japan via its SEN joint-venture. During our recent tour of Asia, we learned that Japanese device makers have a cautious industry outlook for 2005 and we expect many Japanese chip companies to announce lower fiscal year 2005 (ending March 2006) capex budgets on their upcoming earnings calls. While Axcelis has less exposure to the memory segment than some of its peers in the ion implant space, we believe that the company's business is also likely to deteriorate in H2'05 driven by front-half loaded 2005 foundry capex budgets and order patterns.
APPLIED MATERIALS (AMAT; U/C) EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS. Applied Materials is reporting April-quarter (second fiscal quarter 2005) earnings on May 17 after the market close. We model $1.8 billion in revenues (up slightly sequentially) with earnings per share of $0.16, versus the Street consensus estimate of $0.17. We estimate calendar first quarter gross orders of $1.6 billion (down 5% sequentially), at the mid-point of management's guidance for orders of flat to -10% sequentially. We will provide a more detailed quarterly preview for Applied after the company's April-quarter closes.
CREDENCE SYSTEMS (CMOS; U/C) EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS. We model April-quarter revenues of $96 million (up 2% sequentially) with a loss per share of $0.14, in-line with the Street consensus loss per share estimate. We model April-quarter gross orders of $95 million, down 5% sequentially. While the company does not offer official order guidance, we estimate July-quarter gross orders of $90 million, down approximately 5% sequentially.
We believe that the back-end environment remains difficult, as our checks indicate that the outsourced package and test customers continue to order at very low levels. Further, our checks indicate that a sizeable package and test house has received six of Credence System's Sapphire testers but has only "unpackaged" two of the systems (in other words, it has only installed two of the six machines). This has two important implications in our view. First, back-end test equipment makers continue to ship tools to customers that aren't even being utilized (and likely won't even be paid for until/if they are utilized). Customers already have excess capacity on hand from their installed base and didn't want/need the "free" (or "consigned") tool in the first place, which if/when eventually utilized will be additional capacity that will reduce the need for new incremental tester orders. Second, our checks also indicate that the Sapphire platform (which Credence Systems acquired via its purchase of NPTest in early 2004) is considered an unproven platform and has yet to gain significant traction with customers. We view the slow adoption of the Sapphire platform as a negative for Credence, as we believe that the company is relying on the platform to help it maintain a position in the SOC test market.
Last week's news, events and price performance: Last week Monday 4 April (1) Tektronix announced upgrades for its WVR7100 Rasterizer including the addition of Dolby E and Dolby Digital (AC-3) capabilities to meet the demands of broadcast and post-production applications. (2) August Technology announced that it has entered into a confidentiality agreement with Rudolph Technologies and has begun discussions with Rudolph regarding a previously announced merger offer. (On January 27, 2005, Rudolph announced a proposal to acquire August Technology for a combination of Rudolph stock and cash.) (3) Amkor Technology announced that on March 31, 2005 the International Trade Commission ordered new claims construction on patent claim terms relating to Amkor's proprietary MicroLeadFrame package technology. (4) Tessera Technologies signed a technology licensing agreement with Hynix Semiconductor. The agreement replaces a prior licensing agreement, and covers Tessera's chip-scale and multi-chip technologies.
Tuesday 5 April (1) Akrion announced the sale of another Goldfinger Mach2HP single-wafer system to a customer in Asia to replace currently used scrubber technology for post-deposition cleaning. (2) Brooks Software announced the availability of a Run-to-run plug-in application for the Brooks Advanced Process Control Platform. (3) KLA-Tencor announced that it is reaffirming its outstanding offer to acquire August Technology Corporation for $11.50 per share in cash and also reaffirmed that it is willing to consider the use of KLA-Tencor stock as an acquisition consideration. KLA-Tencor also stated that it already owns approximately 4.2% of August's outstanding common stock.
Wednesday 6 April (1) Amkor Technology and ASAT Holdings Limited announced that they have entered into a multi-year cross-licensing agreement under which ASAT will provide Amkor with a license for its Thin Array Plastic Package semiconductor package technology and Amkor will provide ASAT with a license for its Flip Chip semiconductor package technology. (2) Trikon Technologies announced that it has placed its Sigma fxP metal deposition technology for evaluation in one of China's foundries. The foundry will evaluate the tool for a variety of metallization applications, including interconnect, barrier layers and salicides. (3) The SEZ Group (manufacturer of single-wafer wet-processing technology) announced that Elpida Memory has placed orders for several SEZ 323 spin processing tools. Elpida will use the SEZ systems for backside and bevel-edge cleaning of 300-mm product wafers. (4) Newport Corporation announced its decision to divest its robotic systems operations, (the largest part of its Advanced Packaging and Automation Systems Division). Separately, the company announced that in March 2005 it settled a dispute arising out of its acquisition of Micro Robotics Systems, as a result of which the company will record an extraordinary gain of approximately $3.0 million in the first quarter of 2005. (5) Novellus Systems announced that on April 4, 2005, it received notification of an unsolicited mini-tender offer being made by TRC Capital Corporation (Canadian private investment company) to purchase up to 4 million shares of Novellus common stock (2.85 %) for a price of $25.50 per share in cash. Novellus does not recommend or endorse TRC's mini-tender offer and expresses no opinion as to whether Novellus shareholders should tender their shares in the mini-tender offer.
Thursday 7 April (1) Electroglas has begun delivery of EG Net, a web-based networking and product file and wafer map management system for Electroglas' wafer probers. EG simplifies and automates the management of multiple product files and wafer maps found on volume production test floors. (2) Electroglas also revised its first quarter 2005 revenue guidance to approximately $7.7 to $8.0 million versus the company's previous expectation for revenues of approximately $11.2 million in Q1. (3) Advantest Corporation announced global availability of its T5372 memory tester.
The Model T5372 reduces wafer test time by more than 30 percent for DRAM, SDRAM, DDR-SDRAM, flash-memory and other general-purpose memory chips, as well as for MCPs and other specially packaged memories. Friday 8 April (1) ATMI retired its 5.25% convertible subordinated notes due November 16, 2006 in their entirety, consistent with the company's announcement on March 9, 2005.
This week's calendar: Wednesday 13 April: (1) Lam Research (LRCX-$28; IL/C) reporting earnings. GS $0.44; Street $0.43 (2) ASML ($16.42-Gehl) reporting earnings.
Thursday 14 April: (1) Samsung earnings release.
I, Jim Covello, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or |