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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly Buy and Sell Set Ups

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From: chowder	4/29/2005 8:05:32 PM
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APRIL 05 TOTALS: 19 Winners 20 Losers 3 Flat Average gain per winning trade: 4.2% Average loss per losing trade: 2.0% Total profit/loss ... UP $4180 Percentage profit/loss ... UP 2.0% Year To Date: Nasdaq ... down <11.6%> Russell 2000 ... down <11.0%> Dow ... down <5.4%> S&P 500 ... down <4.5%> The Portfolio ... UP 3.4% Analysis: The stated objective all along has been to outperform the market. Year to date, that objective is being met. The secondary objective has been to be profitable when the markets are down. In other words, I don't want to show a better loss ratio than the market when the market is down, I want to still show a profit. This month saw the markets hitting a new low for the year yet, the portfolio had an up month. This is what I want to do when the market is showing a loss. I still want to show a profit. My winning trades are still outperforming the losing trades from a profit to loss ratio of 2-1. I want the winners to show twice as much profit as a losing trade shows a loss. It was a very tough month to trade as even the leading sectors of the market were taking big hits. The OSX was down <7.4%>, the XNG down <4.4%>. In following the trend of the market, I played more short positions this month than I normally do. This is what helped the portfolio to outperform this month. One of the frustrating things to happen this month were having several trades properly identified to play and they gapped well beyond the entry target, and the trades became invalid. PD is an example, it moved so quickly it dropped over $7 per share in two trading sessions but, it gapped so far beyond the entry target that it wasn't prudent to chase after it, at the time it gapped. I did a better job on the won/loss ratio as I nearly broke even with the number of winners vs losers. I thought last month that I should give the stocks a little more room to breathe and see if they could establish a better trend but this strategy hurt me early in the month so I started cutting losing trades more quickly. The market conditions didn't warrant allowing trades room to breathe. Since the market was down, it was pulling nearly everything down with it. I will have to wait for the market to establish a sustained rally before holding the trades for a longer time frame. A lesson well learned this month and I was rewarded for it by having a decent month in relation to the markets. Best performers: SKO ... up 17.3% GAP ... up 10.2% FNM ... up 8.0% Worst performers: NGPS ... down <7.2%> BZH ... down <4.9%> GAP ... down <4.3%> Suggested Improvements: Can't think of any at this time. I made mid month adjustments and I'm happy with this month's results. The adjustment I made mid month was to commit more to the short side of the market. I was only about 10% invested when the market was falling and I made the decision to pick up the short side which eventually turned the results around for the month. Best decision of the month: Following the short term trend. Staying with my plan when my plan didn't seem to provide the results I wanted. Since the plan was conceptually sound, the results turned around and came my way. January totals: Message 21002734 February totals: Message 21090136 March totals: Message 21190623 dabum

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