Oil Sands and Related Stocks Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Oil Sands and Related Stocks

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To: Bearcatbob who wrote (1901)	8/20/2005 11:39:13 AM
From: Taikun	Read Replies (1) of 25575

DCE: 1.792 bn bbl net to DCE, TOT paid 0.67/bbl On a 2P basis TOT paid approx $1/bbl (This is more than 2P, this includes 3P and contingent reserves) They always talked about a 30yr mine life. 1.8bn/30=60m bbl/yr or approx 165,000bpd operation. CLL Pod 1 538m bbl/30 yrs=49,000bpd Assuming CLL's Pod 1 is 538m bbls of 3P and contingent and using 0.67 we get a value of $360m, or approx $3.50/share. On RobTV on Friday this number was used for the NAV, but the reason why CLL is trading below NAV is execution risk. Remember that COS has been trading below McDep's NPV (not NAV) for over 25% much of the year. Perhaps then $2.75 would be some short-term theoretical top unless the market revalues oil sands plays.

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