Brad Smith on WiMAX's Undetermined Future
>> Big Steps Ahead for WiMAX
The broadband wireless technology has reached some milestones, and certified equipment is expected to ship this year. But it still faces an uncertain future.
Brad Smith
Wireless Week
August 1, 2005
wirelessweek.com
In a meeting room in a Vancouver, British Columbia, hotel last month, several companies betting on the future of WiMAX showed off how the wireless technology could provide multiple VoIP calls, streaming video, interactive gaming using Microsoft's Xbox, and audio and video conferencing.
At the same time, the WiMAX Forum's test lab in Spain began the certification process for hardware from a number of different vendors, with the expectation they'll be certified sometime in November.
The forum expects the show-and-tell in Vancouver and lab tests in Malaga, Spain, will answer some of its critics by proving that not only does the wireless broadband technology work, but that the products coming out will be interoperable. Those are important steps for WiMAX, but there are bigger steps ahead that the forum won't be able to control as easily. Many of these relate to market forces and what WiMAX's role will be among the burgeoning wireless broadband technologies.
It's significant that the WiMAX Forum has started addressing those issues, first with the creation of a new working group devoted to applications, and second by opening up its membership to content providers. Among its new members is the Walt Disney Company, which sees WiMAX as a means of sending its movies and other content into homes.
The forum also has started positioning WiMAX as "personal broadband" to try to differentiate itself in the marketplace of the future. Ron Resnick, the forum's president, believes WiMAX will be akin to the popularity of cell phones but for data. Making that comparison implies mobility, something WiMAX will not be until 2007 or 2008, but mobility is the direction many forum members want to go. Intel, one of the prime movers behind the technology, expects to begin sampling WiMAX mobile chips in early 2006 and have it in laptops by 2007.
TWO PATHS: Although it has one name, WiMAX is going to be two different go-to-market technologies. The first is for fixed wireless and falls under the IEEE 802.16-2004 standard approved last year. The second, for mobile applications, will be under the 802.16e specification expected to be finalized this fall. But the two almost certainly will not be interoperable, so any provider using 802.16-2004 equipment – the equipment being certified now – will have to install 802.16e equipment in the future if it wants to add mobility.
WiMAX could be used in a variety of spectrum, but it is being viewed initially for 3.5 GHz and 2.5 GHz. Korean operators, using a technology they call WiBro (for wireless broadband), plan to use 2.3 GHz spectrum. Korea Telecom (KT) plans an April 2006 commercial launch of WiBro, which is a mobile technology expected to be morphed into the WiMAX 802.16e standard, so its experience could be an indicator of how the technology will play elsewhere in the world.
Won-Pyo Hong, a senior vice president with KT, said at the Vancouver meeting that WiBro will converge telecommunications and media and that WiBro, 3G and Wi-Fi access networks will complement each other. He talked about WiBro using applications like movie downloads, gaming, e-mail, location-based services and online banking. WiBro will launch in Seoul initially and spread to other major cities but will never have nationwide coverage. PDAs are expected to be the main devices, with laptops second.
Hong says KT expects WiBro to be used in nomadic environments with superior data rates to the 3G network, while 3G will provide more mobility.
Mobile WiMAX is expected eventually to provide data rates of about 20 Mbps, although initial implementations may be closer to 1 Mbps to 2 Mbps. Adaptix, a Seattle company with pre-standard gear, conducted a mobile demonstration in Vancouver in which the company said it produced 2.5 Mbps in a vehicle traveling at 40 miles per hour.
Fixed WiMAX has been touted as having the ability to transmit 30 miles or more, becoming a replacement for DSL or cable or for network backhaul. Redline Communications has at least one implementation with pre-WiMAX gear shooting a signal 80 miles over water, according to Keith Doucet, vice president of marketing.
So, what carriers or providers will want to use WiMAX and how will it fit into the wireless broadband landscape?
Phil Marshall, an analyst with the Yankee Group, says mobile wireless broadband services provided by cellular technologies such as W-CDMA and CDMA 1X EV-DO will have about 350 million subscribers globally by 2008. WiMAX likely will offer better performance than 3G where ubiquitous coverage and high mobility are not a priority, he says, especially as an overlay technology.
"Service providers that have 3G spectrum and services can offer an overlaid WiMAX broadband service targeted toward fixed, portable and nomadic subscribers with alternative devices such as laptops," Marshall says in a WiMAX study done for the forum. He adds that WiMAX could "bridge the gap" between applications designed for high-capacity landline networks and the mobile broadband wireless networks.
Whether WiMAX, which does have quality-of-service specifications and does support VoIP, becomes a competitor to wireless cellular operators depends on whom is asked. Some European carriers with 3G spectrum are known to oppose spectrum policy changes that would allow WiMAX to be used on 2.5 GHz spectrum. But a growing number of established operators are testing the technology.
Among the carriers are Sprint, BellSouth (one of the owners of Cingular Wireless), AT&T, Qwest and British Telecom. BellSouth will start its trial this month in Athens, Ga., using pre-WiMAX equipment from Navini Networks. AT&T says it will use WiMAX equipment in its trial in Atlanta starting in the fourth quarter, although the trial is focused more on the business case than on the equipment. AT&T hasn't said whose equipment it will use.
Sanford Brown, vice president of access product management for AT&T, says the operator will include VoIP in its market study but it will be less important than how to use WiMAX to provide dedicated access connecting buildings to its network, for portable job site and kiosk applications, disaster recovery and just plain Internet access for both businesses and consumers.
The AT&T trial will log the customer experience using WiMAX, the business processes and systems issues and the economics for a WiMAX network.
"We're looking at WiMAX as a service offering that could have a substantial impact," Brown says, adding that AT&T has no specific rollout plans.
Sprint, which has started rolling out its EV-DO network, has been testing several wireless broadband technologies. It recently announced a collaboration with Motorola to develop and test infrastructure and handsets for mobile WiMAX. The tests involve lab trials as well as those in the field and are expected to last into 2006. Sprint and its merger partner Nextel control a huge chunk of 2.5 GHz spectrum.
THE GOAL: Oliver Valente, Sprint's chief technology officer, says the goal of the WiMAX trial is to support future wireless interactive multimedia services. He also says it could be used for backhaul.
Asked if the trials will look at the use of dual-mode handsets that could be used on WiMAX and EV-DO networks, Valente says that will be one part of the trial.
Any WiMAX use by Sprint (and Sprint-Nextel) is likely going to be two to three years away, if the carrier uses that technology, Valente says. Right now the operator wants to draw customers to its EV-DO network.
"We would think a broad rollout [of WiMAX if it is chosen for 2.5 GHz] is in 2008," he says. "We are going ahead with EV-DO as quickly as we can. The two will be complementary. Customers don't care about the technology. We think EV-DO will create a pool of customers for new services we could offer in 802.16e."
Qwest has said it will have a WiMAX market trial near Denver starting in the fourth quarter and focusing on its ability to fill gaps in DSL coverage. The trial is expected to last six to nine months.
Also testing a WiMAX network is Disney, which has set up a little network at Disney in Burbank, Calif. Some WiMAX vendors think it might be possible for Disney to set up its own network to deliver movie content directly to consumers, although that would mean it would have to buy spectrum or become a data MVNO by using a 2.5 GHz network operated by a carrier like Sprint.
Yankee Group's Marshall says there are four different kinds of potential WiMAX providers, which he calls innovative challengers, rabbits, mobile operators and municipalities.
The innovative challengers include incumbents such as British Telecom and Qwest, as well as cable operators and satellite companies. Rabbits are fast-movers that build out their own networks; among which are Clearwire in the United States, Iberbands in Spain, Unwired Australia and PCCW in the United Kingdom. Communities that have installed Wi-Fi solutions may consider WiMAX as a complement.
Regardless of their category, it's clear a good number of WiMAX players will be carefully watching their steps, big and small.
Nortel, Motorola Focus on Mobile Aspects
Two of the largest manufacturers building WiMAX gear, Nortel Networks and Motorola, see the future of the technology in mobility.
Nortel admittedly was late to the WiMAX game, but it is using its expertise in OFDMA (orthogonal frequency division modulation access), which is part of the WiMAX standard, to build equipment for the upcoming 802.16e mobility standard. The company expects to have its first commercial WiMAX products, which are being lab tested now, in 2006.
Motorola will leverage its experience in fixed wireless, primarily through its proprietary Canopy products for unlicensed spectrum. It recently announced a collaboration with Sprint to develop base station equipment, smart antenna technology and handsets for mobile WiMAX in the 2.5 GHz spectrum.
John Hoadley, vice president for next-generation wireless access for Nortel, says mobile WiMAX has an opportunity to be the technology of choice for applications used by "broadband nomads" who use laptops and PDAs. He thinks mobile WiMAX can provide 1 Mbps data rates for $20 to $40 per month and that VoIP will become an important application, although it won't replace cellular voice.
Mobile WiMAX will fall someplace between cellular services, which are primarily voice, and enterprise mobility, which is satisfied by Wi-Fi, Hoadley says.
Nortel also plans on adding MIMO (multiple-in, multiple-out) technology to mobile WiMAX in the future, providing higher data rates, Hoadley says. The company has produced 38 Mbps data rates in the lab using MIMO. Nortel, which has a joint venture to develop WiBro technology in Korea, also thinks it will be important to integrate Wi-Fi and WiMAX access, he says.
Dan Coombes, senior vice president and chief technology officer for Motorola Networks, says Motorola expects to have mobile WiMAX equipment in the third quarter of 2006.
Coombes says Motorola's WiMAX products will not compete with Canopy, which has been deployed by a number of providers. WiMAX primarily will be used in licensed spectrum.
Wireless carriers that don't have 3G spectrum or a 3G strategy might decide to use mobile WiMAX to leapfrog 3G, Coombes says.
Disney Runs Its Own Test Network
The Walt Disney Company has been running a trial WiMAX network in Southern California to test both the technology and the kinds of applications for which it is best suited.
The network, which spans 2 1/4 miles between a tower in Burbank to the ABC network building in Riverside, was set up last winter to validate the technology, see what kind of bandwidth it provides and determine how it handles weather conditions like rain, says Howard Liu, director of digital network architecture in Disney's New Technology and Development unit.
Liu, who also is co-chair of the WiMAX Forum's applications working group, says the network is testing five classes of applications: multiplayer interactive gaming, VoIP, streaming media, Web browsing and instant messaging, and media content download.
The vendors involved in the test include Alvarion, Redline Communications, Proxim and Posdata. The network uses license-free spectrum at 5.8 GHz and a parallel network likely will be set up once WiMAX gear is certified for the 3.5 GHz spectrum. The initial equipment is pre-WiMAX, but the network will use certified equipment for the fixed WiMAX and mobile WiMAX standards.
"We want to learn as much as we can before we finalize the optimum business model," Liu says. "We want to know what WiMAX can do and what it can't do."
Disney's interest in joining the forum as a voting member is to help develop WiMAX as a true international standard for broadband wireless, Liu says. The hope, he says, is WiMAX will become a new broadband path to consumers, not only for Disney but for all content providers. But it's only one of many technologies that can be used, which also include cable, DSL, fiber and Wi-Fi. <<
- Eric - |
