Ovum Update on the WiMAX Roadmap (and Backwards Compatability) .....
>> An Update on the WiMAX Roadmap
Julian Grivolas
Ovum
July 2005
ovum.com
All the marketing hype surrounding WiMAX has undoubtedly contributed to industry awareness of the technology, but it has also created unrealistic expectations for both performance and product availability for such an immature market.
This 'over-hype' led to disappointment when the WiMAX Forum delayed the launch of the WiMAX certification process initially scheduled for January 2005 to July 2005. Consequently, there will not be any WiMAX-certified products until late 2005, and in the interim period, all the so-called'pre-WiMAX' equipment will be proprietary developments based on IEEE 802.16-2004.
However, April 2005 saw many significant announcements for the WiMAX industry:
• ETSI and the WiMAX Forum agreed to work together on the development of common standards and certification tests
• WiMAX Forum Certification processes will begin in July 2005, initially focusing on IEEE 802.16-2004 equipment based on two profiles in the 3.5GHz band, with 3.5MHz channelisation using TDD and FDD. The WiMAX Forum expects more profiles in 2006 depending on market demand and vendor product submission, and has also confirmed its commitment to backward compatibility.
• Three heavyweights in the chip industry, namely Intel, Texas Instruments and Fujitsu, launched production in volume of their 802.16-2004 chipsets. This opens a window for lower-cost 802.16-2004-based CPE and infrastructure equipment.
The WiMAX industry may have clarified its product roadmap for equipment based on 802.16-2004, but this does not mean the main operators are automatically going to widely deploy the technology. First, because no certified products will be available in volume before late 2005, but above all because of the unclear migration path towards 802.16e, the mobile version of WiMAX.
Even for WiMAX backers, and Intel in particular, the long-term success of WiMAX relies on 802.16e to enable the 'personal broadband vision' concept. Here WiMAX is envisioned as a complement to 'beyond 3G technologies' rather than a competitor, at least in developed countries.
The problem is that several issues remain unsolved - the main one is the final specification of the IEEE 802.16e standard itself. Initially, the IEEE standard body was expecting to use the OFDM 256 FFT physical layer specification already adopted by the WiMAX Forum for the fixed version of WiMAX. This decision aimed for backward compatibility between the two versions through a smooth software-based upgrade. However, the integration of WiBro into the 802.16e process brings new technical approaches, especially concerning the PHY layer with the introduction of the Scalable OFDMA (SOFDMA) technique. The only problem is that SOFDMA is not backward compatible with OFDM256, which is the basis of current 'pre-WiMAX' equipment, even in the same frequency band. On top of that, there are also some issues regarding the spectrum used by the first certified profiles to support mobile WiMAX.
Given all these uncertainties, service providers, in particular incumbents, who have ambitions in mobile WiMAX are adopting a 'wait and see' strategy. A clarification of the 802.16e roadmap appears to be critical for the take-off of the technology for these players.
Operators mainly targeting the fixed application business will accelerate their deployment strategies once standardised indoor and outdoor solutions are available in volume and at lower prices. These operators could position themselves as
• Suppliers of connectivity solutions for enterprises (WiMAX as an alternative to T1/SDSL)
• Wholesalers using WiMAX as the technology of choice for backhauling WiFi and cellular
• Suppliers of Internet access services targeting consumer/enterprise markets in remote areas where no wired networks are deployed or where wired technologies' performances are poor.
Nevertheless, the support of mobility remains a critical differentiator for WiMAX, and the business case for these early adopters would be significantly empowered by mobile capability. <<
- Eric - |
