OT/
Of the financials you can buy in the US without resorting to pink sheets, MTF (PE 19) and NMR (PE 49!) are the only two I like. MTF is the parent of BOTM (Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, #2 since Mizuho took the #1 spot). There is Orix (IX, PE 18) but these guys were my former client and they are so int'l I don't see them as as much of a play on Japan and post office deragulation compared to MTF and NMR. I like MTF for the calls but NMR should get a chunk of those postal savings too. I just don't know how much int'l they have which might offset Japan gains (ie if London revenue dropped, for example).
Even better than MTF and NMR would be a more domestic play like Daiwa Securities, but now you're talking pinkies.
For real estate I have been considering MITEY, although energyplay alerted me to TOLAY which gets you additional exposure to Asian resorts and a mixed retail portfolio (Tokyu Hands), but I still like MITEY.
I still like NTT, partly as they own NTT Docomo (DCM) which is another one to watch. They are developing that phone-wallet combination that makes them a financial sector play. This could be a real money spinner in an improving economy. Both of these have high cost structures though and aren't immune to internet calling (VOIP) and other competition, but Japan Inc uses them. DCM ADRs also have options and a low PE of 11. VZN has a PE of 11 also, and since the mobile business is so cutthroat, I think I would rather own the parent. (For example, SBC has a PE of 17, if NTT got to 17 it would be 60% upside from here). DT's PE is 21 but I don't think NTT will have a 4% yield soon. BT's PE is 14, 6% yield. Maybe a PE between BT and SBC, say 15 or 16, would be reasonable as maybe this is just a proxy for Japanese growth?
What do you like about Mitsui? MITSY is one of the few 5 letter Japanese names I can buy at Interactive Brokers. KNBWY (Kirin) and DAIEY (Daiei) are two more, KNBWY the more interesting. The rest of 5-letter names (TOLAY, MITEY) I have to use my Scottrade or Fidelity acct. Scottrade is your right arm ($27) and Fidelity your first born ($19+an often charged depository fee of $50) so I loathe using them!
David |
