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Technology Stocks : AMERica on-Line, Another over valued company?

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To: Jeff Olson who wrote (209)8/12/1996 10:47:00 AM
From: Art Stone  Read Replies (1) of 222
 
Your calculations seem basically correct to me. There are a few other factors which could come into play.

AOL's own statement is that 95% of all AOL members don't exceed the 5 hour minimums. (Your calcuation assumes 90%)

The -really- heavy users (like I was) will be tempted to establish multiple accounts, each in the 20/20 plan. If the people using 100+ hours a month start having 5 accounts, and paying $100 instead of $300, that will further dilute the earnings (your analysis is static - assuming no change in behavior)

Tomorrow (I believe), AT&T is releasing the combined AT&T and AOL software (This was announced back in spring, and coincides with the official release of Microsoft Internet Explorer 3.0 - which the new software uses). What effect this may have in subscriber acquisition for AOL (with minimal marketing costs) is yet to be seen. The original deal mentioned that AT&T users would get a discounted rate for using AOL via AT&T, since AT&T Worldnet is providing the network (instead of Sprint or AOLNet). I'm still looking around for the details. It's a busy day today :)

AOL's 10 Q/K should be posted in a day or two, and should make very interesting reading.
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