Emile,
You have been making alot of noise about the merits of ADSL on all of these ASND threads and I think that you have fallen victim to the ADSL hype. The fact that !nterprise couldn't make a go of it with IDSL, which is the lowest cost DSL, does not bode well for ADSL.
IDSL is simpler to install, understood by current RBOC personnel and by far lower cost than any other DSL because it is based on ISDN, a mature technology. It does not require an expensive piece of CPE (any ISDN TA will do) or huge upgrade in the backbone to support IDSL.
IDSL can probably be installed for less than $300 per subscriber whereas ADSL is at least 5 times that. Plus, IDSL is good for the RBOC because it offloads data calls from their local switches and is less complicated than ISDN.
ADSL is just the latest broadband technology to get over hyped by the trade press. Remeber HFC, how about FTTC/SDV (I think I remember you on the BBTK thread - how well are they doing these days) or maybe some of the wireless solutions (MMDS, LMDS). IMHO most of the ADSL vendors won't be around much longer as the only ADSL deployed to date has been in small trials and there are no signs that anything is going to change in the marketplace real soon. Remember, ADSL was conceived when VOD was the supposed "killer-app" hence it is overkill for today's "killer-app" -- Internet access. If you give people 7 Mbps access in their homes what on earth are they going to do with it? Besides the cost of the ADSL modem and DSLAM think of the backbone upgrades that will be required! How will all of this get paid for... $19.95 a month web surfers aren't worth the investment.
PAIR has made a very successful business out of HDSL because there was a clear value proposition for HDSL: it is cheaper to provision and maintain a T1 service with HDSL than it is with conventional T1 repeaters. There is no such value proposition for any of the xDSL technologies as a residential, mass market broadband service!
As far as WSTL's announcements with LU and DSC these were simply gap strategies for LU and DSC. They can now advertise that their DLCs support ADSL without having to invest R&D to do so. They can now wait out the DSL marketplace to see what develops and probably buy an ADSL vendor in a going out of business sale in a year or so if it makes sense.
If a market for ADSL ever does develop (it will be at least 5 years out IMHO) it will be companies like COMS/USRX, CSCO and ASND that will reap the benefits not WSTL, Amati, AWRE etc.
Regards,
Bill |
