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Gold/Mining/Energy : Oil Sands and Related Stocks
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To: Taikun who wrote (6242)1/30/2006 1:54:13 AM
From: haitokin  Read Replies (2) of 25575
 
CLL selling upgraded crude? I haven't heard any plans - It's the one missing part of the puzzle that hasn't been reported on. I think they'll wait to get the EUB approval to let us know if they are going to use say - Ivanhoe energy's upgrading tech, or genoils, or SUF's - or WSCE's - that kind of upgrading tech is out there - and all those companies would love to be suppliers , so yes, I do think this will fall into place by 2007.

Yes, I do think that big cash can be had from Heavy Oil. It depends on the scale. I don't think BVI has the same type of deposit as CLL. CLL is supposed to be very rich, and so maybe it has slightly different economics.

Numbers? Well let's see. You had suggested some $20+ net back for CLL? Let's used some more conservative numbers of a range from $12-15. Assuming higher interest rates, higher labor, and lower oil. At 10K bpd, that's $44-55 million net profit in one year - assuming full production. Knock off 9% so $40-50M cash flow? Go to CLL presentation - like Raymond James NAV calc's for comparison - I think that's close to what they are using.

CAPEX - you've got me - wasn't it going to cost something like $200-240 million to put the SAGD operation together to get 10 K bpd? You'll know the answer to that one Taikun So would I if I didn't have to figure out what to load up on tomorrow.

Gotta go. Bets of luck this week everyone!

H
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