My wiggle read is that we head up early, perhaps after finishing what looks like a diagonal in the NDX, probably in a B wave, but the rally fails around the 50% retrace of the move from 43.05 to Friday's low or whatever low we get tomorrow early, and we start a C down. Right now, that'd mean we turn down at 42.60ish
I ran some numbers on QQQQ performance the day after a 1% sell-off, when it closes at or very close to the low. Basic outcome is the following day's high is about 2.6% above the low of the 1% sell-off day. But, when you control for volatility, as measured by the VIX, our expected high tomorrow will be about .9% above Friday's low, which should get us short-term overbought. The open should be about flat.
Bottom line is that I think we get over 42.60 but not much more than that before going sub-42 in the C down. I think by op-ex we're going to new highs on the NDX, though. That's my map right now, although a sprint to new highs from here would work out best for me. |
