Then we agree on one thing: The market can be insane in the short term (due imo to its myopic view of the future.) That is where the largest opportunities lie. Not in the well-known, well-covered, well-understood companies whose sp already reflects all the risks and rewards likely in the future, but in the under-known, under-followed, less-understood companies whose potential is not as obvious.
I don't know why you insist on denigrating PBG. If I thought that a particular stock was overvalued and risky, I would simply ignore it, move on, and direct my efforts to more reasonable investments. I would certainly not feel a need to have the last word, countering every bit of information/opinion that current investors put forth.
Comparing this to the tulip mania? The price of a tulip bulb in that mania probably would have bought several barrels of bitumen at Whitesands using today's valuation of less than $1 per barrel.
I know I've said this before, but in view of all the discussion on THAI, I'll repeat myself: I honestly think that the market is not valuing THAI at all. In fact the uncertainty surrounding it is resulting in a sp lower imo than it would be if THAI didn't exist. If PBG had Whitesands and not THAI, they would have filed a proposal, and be working on a project to develop it using SAGD, with the result that the resource could at least partially be booked as reserves. Did you notice the price rise in CLL last summer when they were allowed to book some of their Great Divide resource as reserves -- simply because they had FILED A PLAN to develop them? PBG's reserve report still shows no value for Whitesands, and the market is valuing it accordingly. So much for an efficient market.
m7 |
