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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts
COHR 209.26-0.8%Feb 5 3:59 PM EST

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To: Investor2 who wrote (38)9/15/2006 4:29:40 PM
From: Kirk ©   of 27260
 
ANOTHER LOOK AT THE BULLISH PERCENT INDEX
From John Murphy Fri, Sep 15 2006 3:54 PM ET

ANOTHER LOOK AT THE BULLISH PERCENT INDEX ... One of our readers asked for my read on the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index. Charts 4 and 5 shows two versions of what it looks like at present. The BPSPX measures the percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 that are on point & figure buy signals. Generally speaking, readings over 70 represent an overbought market. The last downturn from that level in early 2006 was an early sign of a weakening market. It's important, however, for the market to find support around its 50 line. That's because 50 is usually the dividing line between bull and bear markets. A decisive drop below 50 signals a shift from a bull to a bear market. So far, that hasn't happened. In fact, the BPSPX bounced off 50 and is starting to rise again. Chart 5 shows the p&f version of the chart which is the one generally used for trading signals. It paints a more friendly picture than it did a couple of months ago. During July (number 7), the last o column was threatening the bottoms of two previous o columns and its rising 45 degree support line (the o columns show falling values). Fortunately, it has since bounced off those support levels. During September (represent by number 9) the last x column exceeded a previous x column, which is technical buy signal. [The last green x represents today's price action]. The main message of the chart is that the S&P 500 avoided turning into a bear market during the summer and is attempting another upleg.

And my charts





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