"Hold your friends close, but your enemies closer."
re: Goldman Sachs
Hmmm?
Now... the unwashed masses are finally seeing Goldman for what it is -- on the way down; after being blind to what they were -- on the way up?
Whodathunkit?!?!
Don't the permabulls remember Goldman's Arjun "mary meeker" Murti -- pumping up Oil and leading the "student body left" speculative run in Oil over the last couple of years?
Here's a refresher:
Message 22262650
If you ever wanted absolute, irrefutable proof -- beyond any shadow of doubt; that 90% of traders are "doomed by their own DNA" -- here's your proof:
Goldman is now the "Evil Empire"...because they've allegedly turned on their own clients and have led the short-sided attack on Natural Gas, Gasoline and Crude Oil...and are also now manipulating the commodity indices?
But, they weren't "Evil", or "manipulators" when they "gamed" Oil & Gas on the way up?
The same with Central Banks...
Central Banks are manipulators of the Gold market when they sell...but, evidently -- not when they buy?
This spring, everyone from Jim Sinclair to nearly all the gold bug newsletter writers were pumping the coming Gold buying by Central Banks, especially China & Russia as an immenient upside catalyst for Gold.
We heard all about the Chinese ETF and how China & Russia were going to dump US Dollars and buy tons and tons of gold.
It's manipulation when they sell, but free market behavior when they buy?
That makes sense...now doesn't it?
The biggest mistake the permabulls have made over the last 4-5 months is in not respecting the other side of the trade.
...not scouting the opponent, or studying his gameplan.
That's what happened to both Mother Rock and Amaranth.
They were both doomed by their own DNA... a combo of hubris and greed.
-- nothing more, nothing less.
It's easy to make money (even lots of it) in commodity cycles, but it's not so easy -- to hang onto it.
And that's exactly what has caused this massive capitulation and whipsaw in commodities.
Bug's blinded by emotionality and being doomed by their own DNA. Seeing Central Bank selling as manipulation, but Central Bank buying as purely free market behavior.
Seeing Goldman pumping up commodities as free market behavior, but, now if they go short -- suddenly they're manipulators?
This correction wasn't hard to see coming... it really wasn't.
Next time... respect and scout your opponent.
Know the other side of the trade... and the reasoning behind it...as well as you know your side of the trade.
Until you do... you'll continually be trading "behind" the market, instead of -- out front of it.
And you'll experience one rollercoaster whipsaw-ride after another.
Why do you think NFL coaches spend over 65% of their time studying their opponent?
Do they blame the referee when their opponent throws a bomb on 4th and one? Or, if they pass off of a fake field goal attempt?
Or, do they anticipate it and plan for it?
If you respected the other side of the trade.
If you studied your opponent.
If you kept your friends close, but your enemies closer.
...then you'd be raking in the chips in both directions and you'd be sitting in the catbird seat right here -- right now... just patiently waiting for yet another -- discrepancy between price and risk to appear... and not babbling on Bloomberg, or grumbling about Goldman.
Thank You and Good Night,
SOTB
PS: If you want "evil, manipulation"... just wait.
Notice the civil-war within the Republican Party?
The split with McCain, Warner, Hutchison... the Generals?
The big push to oust Rumsfeld?
Suddenly, it's dawned on the old guard that the Oil Cowboy-Cartel has also enriched our enemies to the tune of a few hundred Billion Dollars...which allows them to buy everything from nanotechnology to nukes.
The old guard has finally realized that it can and will make more money by sucking the social security system into the market...than they ever did with the Cowboy Oil Cartel.
After all... they'll need YOUR money to fund the exit of THEIRS....before the house of cards collapses.
Tic' Toc` |
