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Strategies & Market Trends : SiliconInvestor All Stars Forum
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To: Fiscally Conservative who wrote (114)2/14/2007 7:07:44 AM
From: RarebirdRead Replies (2) of 1718
 
>>Risk verses reward tells me to stand pat and hedge toward a downward move before re-evaluating. One has to stick to the plan.<<

The Market is in the home stretch of the first half of the uptrend which started in 2003. That means it very likely has more ahead, but the gains will pale in comparison to those we've seen so far. Still, the home stretch in an uptrend can be quite profitable.

Honestly, I don't understand all the bearishness here. There are many sectors which are still positive and far from rolling into a downward trend. The Russell 2000, S@P 400 Mid-Cap, Value Line (I like (ticker symbol) RSP as a close approximation) and the Utilities (XLU) are just a few examples of strength. Moreover, No bear market has ever started when the A-D Line recently hit a new high. It's relatively bullish for the blue chip indices to be relatively weaker than the broad market indices as is the case right now. The fact that the market is essentially acting the same way it acted when this uptrend began in 2003 has to be considered a positive for the uptrend to continue.

The current short term uptrend should continue into early March. Longer term uptrends should carry the market into September 2007. Yes, there will be a bear market eventually. In fact, the dip after the end of the uptrend in September could be one humdinger of a correction if the bond market is presenting attractive yields to stock investors.
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