DNDN is pure speculation at this point, and so is assigning probabilities to potential outcomes, but giving a 2/3 probability to something better than an approvable letter seems awfully generous
the drug didn't even meet its endpoints, and patients on the drug lived an average of four extra months, if that data is even accurate, considering all the massaging that was done to the study data
there's no doubt that four months is an eternity to someone who is dying, and it's possible that the FDA will approve the drug simply on the hope that it will benefit some patients, but it seems just as likely that they will issue an approvable letter, and let DNDN continue its study that runs until 2010
as noted previously, anyone buying this stock (or writing puts, etc) with the idea that DNDN is any more likely to be 20 than 4 in a month, is speculating with blinders on
JMHO of course, but i note that forbes has similar thoughts on the possible outcomes, and also on the potential upside vs downside
forbes.com |
