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Politics : New FADG.
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To: neolib who wrote (1608)6/11/2007 1:48:39 AM
From: Nadine CarrollRead Replies (1) of 4152
 
The point being that the models do a pretty good job when run against the measured data from the last 100 years.

Um, the point Freeman Dyson was making was that of course they do. They have been munged to fit the data. This alone makes them scientifically unreliable for predictive purposes.

Anyone is free to develop there own model that does just as well on that stretch of data, but then shows something much different going forward. Thats the problem, nobody can.


You do realize that this statement is equally valid interpreted as a) the current outputs are the only valid outputs, and b) the current outputs are unreliable, but improving them is beyond our current scientific know-how.

but comparing the science of global warming today to eugenics of 100 years ago is not useful.

The scientists of 100 years ago discovered many things for which there was scientific evidence, and have held up to later discoveries. Like special relativity. Eugenics did not hold up not because its proponents were ignorant, but because they jumped their conclusions in an unrigorous way ahead of available data, based on what they truly hypothesized to be correct. It was then advanced further by the various do-gooders and politicians. It should stand as a warning not to politicize science and not to advance its conclusions beyond the availability of sound scientific evidence.
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