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Non-Tech : Farming

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To: gcrispin who wrote (566)3/16/2008 7:43:31 PM
From: Elroy Jetson  Read Replies (1) of 4450
 
Yes, grain prices have tripled while costs have risen only modestly. Fast typing without reading what I wrote.

The point with DBA is even if wheat prices rise to new heights, DBA shares will no longer being rising in price as fast as they were. Ahead lies greater risks.

Until recently DBA was part Ponzi scheme. Their share price was rising because they were buying the same contracts and pushing up the price of their own investments. Now that they are maxed-out on these positions, they have to rely on someone else's buying.

Worse will come if DBA ever has to sell, which will quickly reverse their effect on the price.

Come contract expiration time, the price of DBA contracts are well above the current spot price, and I believe well above the future spot price on their contract's expiration date.
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