Crude --- Elliot Wave -- seeking feedback --- Yike John Pitera has entered the room... more like stumbled onto the thread with a few musings on Crude.......... also posted on the Market Lab thread.....
Message 24573198
Yes $132 dollar is my "magic" number for the near term top in crude. So I'll settle for $130. I ran a 5,8,13, 21,and 34 day rate of change oscillator on WTIC and it's a pretty mixed bag in term of momentum divergences especially on the 8 Day but on others one can still make the case that momentum is not all that bad.
Putting on my Elliot wave hat for a moment I can actually make a case that we are in the over all 3 of the 3rd of the 5th wave or 3rd of the 5th wave all the way up off of the 10.35 intraday low we made on 12-21-1998.......Dec 21st of course being one of WD GANN famed time turning points, the winter solstice.
I'll see if I can post a chart with a count. For magnitude if that count were to be correct the top of the 3rd wave of the same magnitude would have to be the Jul 2006 high of 79.86 and the bottom of wave 4 the 51.03 low of Jan 2007.
within the 4th wave and it would be a simple a-b-c with the a wave decline from 79.86 in Jul of 2006 to the 57.05 on it looks like 10-31-2007, the b wave up to the high of 64.15 on wouldn't you know it Dec 20th 2006 and then wave c of larger wave 4 straight down into the low of 51.03 on 01-17-2007.
If you to the charts the elliottician in the group and on SI can ponder that one if they like... May I also post this on the appropriate Elliot wave thread..... would that be the clown-free Elliot wave thread?.............
anyway, I feel a bit like Elmer Fudd in one of the old Bugsy Bunny cartoons....... "be werrry werrry quite, we're doing Elliott wave Analysis here -vbg-
So to make sense of that elliot wave argument, fundamentally we have to be talking about a bigger globalized slowdown, China's got to stop growing at 15-20% or what the heck ever they are really growing at ..... etc.
I do have a oil time cycle charts that I do keep, but that's going to have to be shown with charts to make any sense, as does most or all Technical Analysis for that matter.
And not to pick on Cramer that much but it would make sense as to why he is so incredibly bullish on the energy sector. (I suspect Dr. Mad Money would be burning me in effigy on his show if he heard me mention that... sorry Jimbo ;-) )
John |
