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Strategies & Market Trends : CFZ E-Wiggle Workspace
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To: skinowski who wrote (9118)10/25/2008 4:57:33 PM
From: Galirayo  Read Replies (1) of 41420
 
Thanks .. the reason I did the Form Fit on the XLE is because I ... "FEEL" the Oil Spike was an anomaly .. created by too many trying to play a Thinly Traded Commodity. And because our Government saw fit to not include Food and Energy coefficients in the Inflation Gauge. No Wonder Allan Greenspan just told Congress that his "MODEL" was Flawed.

I think I may have mentioned that I thought it was Flawed because even though the cost of food and energy may fluctuate dramatically .. it provided Zero Adjustment for any sustained Trend in either direction.

Hell .. even Stochastics can provide just about any kind of Smoothing Factor you desire.

But not to include any kind of adjustment in the Inflation Calculation for a Sustained Trend over "Time" in either Food or Energy .. is just SIMPLY LUDICROUS. It doesn't take into consideration the actual impact on the consumer.

And because in hindsight .. this was not an Ascending Triangle breaking out of the Box but a Leading Diagonal forecasting the end of the run.

Message 24726041

So now we have the USD on a rebound because USD denominated commodities are retracing .. not because of the strength of the USD itself .. but because of its comparative or relative strength against other global currencies which is deflating the commodities in our currency. As it increases the Cost of commodities that are denominated in and weakening against the USD .. we have an inpouring of funds from other countries whose currencies are deflating against ours in order to hedge theirs against the USD.

We should be seeing some Immediate Repatriation of Earnings held by US Global Companies in other Foreign Currencies before those foreign denominated earnings loose their clout ..

Earnings Repatriation Tax !! Those earnings would have been back here a long time ago if not for the PENALTY TAX.

My biggest fear now with commodities in Falling Knife Mode .. is not inflation .. it's more Deflation.
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