The big assumption here is that we're going to get *five* waves down. I agree that it would seem most likely, given the clear motive nature of the thrust. However, it is entirely possible that a really nasty bear unfolds as a series of repeating three-wavers, e.g. ABC-X-ABC-X-ABC. Nothing prohibits that. If so, we could be in another X wave, on the same order as the March-May correction.
That's the bugger about bear markets - they are always corrective (so far anyways), and therefore sloppy, choppy affairs, and difficult to count overall.
The ball to keep your eye on here, IMO, is the ringy, clearly corrective nature of everything since the 10/10 lows. Choppy, overlapping, short covering - those structures are almost always corrective, and usually fail - in time.
`BC |
