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Strategies & Market Trends : CFZ E-Wiggle Workspace
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To: skinowski who wrote (9443)11/25/2008 2:20:21 PM
From: Perspective  Read Replies (1) of 41414
 
Still d*cking around with that SPX 850 level. No decision so far. Perhaps the last hour will resolve things.

I can't complain. Despite having hauled around a large (>50%) short exposure most of the year, I managed to hedge up to flat by adding a ton of SPY on 11/13. It wasn't the best timing in the world - would have paid to have exited the hedge after a few hours and re-entered a week later - but it has felt great having most of the general market risk of a bounce neutralized. Somehow, I managed to still move up as my short picks have fallen more than the market. I'm sitting here within 1% of my best level, with the market up well over 10% off the lows. Almost fully hedged - and relieved to be freed up some for the holidays.

I've added selectively to shorts on the rally, so now I'm debating whether to use this little pullback to throw on a little more hedging. I'm still inclined to believe that we have the wrong sentiment in place to produce a long-lasting bottom, but a bounce through the inauguration wouldn't surprise me at all.

I see a lot of gaps in this last launch that would make some good targets for a complete pullback, so maybe I'll just sit still for a little while longer. I'm still not satisfied with the structure of the last move to new lows a few days back, but we're certainly in the final innings there before a larger bounce should take over. Might be good odds to get a little more SPX on a deeper retest.

`BC
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