Yeah, looking back last week's top was a good spot for a reversal. I think I commented on it, but did nothing, except for tightening stops on longs, which I'm sure glad about. (I'm between jobs, moving, vacationing, not paying too much attention, and this will go on through February).
If this was all we'll see WRT wave 4, then it was a fairly weak, shallow consolidation. Probably, all the bouncing energy was spent on the volatile swings last Oct-Nov (g/ng).
If we're in the big 5, the question is - how far down it will travel. Big "1" - which started in Oct 2007 - lasted for about 5 months, and took us down about 300 SPX points. That said, a 5th is a 5th, it can prove to be weak or fail... or it can extend and become truly scary. (Or, we may still be in "4", in a spot analogous to the one in mid-April of last year.... or, the 5th may go on for a long time but not too deeply, like an ED). Ether way, gotto be careful out there. |
