OIH - based on th chart, unless it reverses very soon it may easily travel down to 50 or below. It has been more or less ranging since late October, but in the scheme of things all that was a low level consolidation, calling for new lows, or at least a serious test of old lows.
One additional bearish suggestion is that (on 130 minute chart) the declines look more like impulses, while the advances are clear three-wavers.
The odds remain on the bearish side. I shorted OIH a few times, the first time, actually - as I recall - being last summer on the very day when it finally topped. What can I say - should have held.
When I talk about energy longer term, it's not a chart thing. I'm being eclectic.... LOL! But seriously, I had a great ride on energies, sold well, but not completely - and re-entered too early. As simple as that. At this point I still trade them a little, but I think it makes sense to hold on to the core.
....Before y'all conclude that I've gone soft in the head (which is a possibility against which there is never a guarantee) I haste to add that I DID go short this latest leg of the (SPX) decline -- and still holding.. -g |
