MEMC INT'L. (WFR -NYSE) The Sleeping Giant? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : MEMC INT'L. (WFR -NYSE) The Sleeping Giant?

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To: TREND1 who wrote (746)	9/5/1996 1:54:00 PM
From: Robert Mayo	of 4697

Larry, I have a MS in Operations Research and have great respect for statistical analysis. It's a very useful tool for some applications. But I still like to have explanations in simple declarative sentences. In short, I like to know the reason why something is happening. I have a pretty good idea why we've got a sell-off going in WFR the past few trading days. Lots of uncertainty about the current quarter. I really don't need a chart to explain that. A chart can tell you "what" but usually not "why." Trend following can be productive but you often miss the most profitable part, at the start. After all, a trend has to be established before a techie can spot it. Do you feel confident that you can tell the difference between a "dead cat bounce" in a broken stock and a real shift in sentiment, particularly if the stock is thinly traded? I'll continue to sit on my capital losses in WFR because I figure that sooner or later, hopefully in the next two months, it's going to jump. Given the volatility in the stock, it can easily move a $1/day. By the time most techies spot the move, it could be up a few bucks. Bob M.

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