hello hoa hao,
(i) first, welcome back; long time. trust you are well.
(ii) second, following up on Message 18159979 of october 25, 2002 <<not yet in, and, crucially, may be another 30-50% away. I am working on my Script for 2003 (a promising year for bad news), and will come back to this point when done>>
... s&p was at at around 900, and gold at 312 on that day in october of 2002; and, today, happily, the s&p is at 1,060 and gold at 1,100. conclusion, by real money as opposed to rubber band elastic cash, s&p is down 65%, i.e. >50% away.
and yes, i did urge by example at end of october 2002 Message 18168129 <<so decided to increase my paper GOLD hoard by 50%>>
(iii) <<China gets it's collect(ivist) act together and becomes more democratic and successful economically>>
... bang-on again by my read and your concurring hope, certainly relative to the empire. our posting saw the future ;0)
(iv) <<On Taiwan, of its 21 mm folks, fully 1 mm of the most productive have been directly absorbed by the Mainland as of now, with probably another 2-3 mm indirectly embraced>>
... doubtless a coincidence for me being spot-on once again, now that the taiwan issue is as good as settled, sooner to full embrace than ever, given the 'united front' of commie-pinkos and the kmt ;0)
(v) <<On NMD, I believe a system designed for failure will fail, but cost a bundle while doing so>>
... could have saved yourself some tax dollars :0)
(vi) <<On N.Korea, I believe it is the difficult problem in a crowded neighborhood without clean options, making Iraq a side show for Asia. I believe China, Russia, Japan and S.Korea will, net net, do absolutely nothing except build big kabooms as a minimum response, just in case. As usual, the US will have to volunteer and do the dirty work>>
... :0) stop it, i must stop it for else i might fall into a hubris trap :0)
(vii) <<I believe when the Israelis see how intractable the N.Korea problem is, they may try to do something unilaterally in Iraq, to trigger a showdown and rope in the US, willy by the nilly>>
... ;0) let us not go there except to say "bingo, closer enough for government work"
The future?
(a) USA assets in real money terms will fall by at least another 80%, perhaps with half by nominal price collapse and half by purchasing power cratering, and then we go into the definitive crisis of dissolution, confiscation, redistribution, revolution, and evaporation, and finally with ppp gdp per capita settling at equivalent/relative to global of around 7-10k/capita.
the energy for above would be generated by collision of 50 tril of debt-ly deleverage and 50 tril of toxic inflation. on average things should be ok ;0)
Salvation would be antiseptic silver; redemption monetary gold, and deliverance strategic platinum.
(b) <<Sudden Jihad Syndrome>> will go global and spread to other almost-just-as-militant-faiths, given that usa is insincere in the fight, is effectively a fundamentalist state, and harbouring / giving aid and comfort wittingly and otherwise to the otherside, terror uighers, feudal tibetans warlords and remnants, you name it.
next failed state to ensnare the empire? pakistan, and then either and/or mexico and india.
the situation shall be worsened by roaming mercenaries at call of duty to the highest bidder, mostly residing within the empire, i.e. problems coming, and they would not all be named hasan.
(c) china? heading for teotwawki and bright enough dawn, on track to approach her normal mean, passing 7-10k/gdp-capita along the way, a mere doubling again, ushering a new age of civilization, one of peace, non-interference, exploration, etc etc etc, enabled by diligent and thrifty work force, strong confucius and very secular ethics, unburdened by superstition, unleashed by inexpensive and effectively free capital, and enhanced by value-packed intellectual capital.
to capitalize as well as to hedge the unintended consequences, recommendation, antiseptic silver, monetary gold, and strategic platinum, coincidentally, matching imperatives for salvation, redemption, and deliverance.
(d) time horizon for (a) - (c) 7 - 15 years.
cheers, tj |
