TBT trade time again?
We caught a quick +30-40% bounce on this TBT put sale trade:
From SliderOnTheBlack 3/3/2010 1:45:20 PM
Message 26359425
Here:
Message #21455 from SliderOnTheBlack at 4/5/2010 6:00:53 PM
Message 26438973
"TBT put sales now up + 30-40% as 10 yr. breaks 4% (18 month
high) and 3 & 6 Month T-Bill auctions weakest year to date..."
==========
Sadly, I only took about 1/3rd of that trade off, but
I sold TBT LEAPS for a longer term, "when, not if" trade.
Right now we're getting a re-test of that TBT bottom,
and this should set up another 30-40% short term bounce trade
here, as traders flock to US Treasuries on a "best of the worst"
flight to safety trade.
Let's see if we can do this one more time.
Only this time, we're looking for a short-term trade,
since we're already holding our "Black Swan" hedge.
You can sell the Jan 2012 $30 TBT puts for $3.20,
or the $35's for $4.95. I like the $30-$35 strikes.
You could also sell the $25 strike and use that
"safe" premium to buy some deep out of the money
LEAP calls... which isn't a bad way to put on
an initial "Black Swan" US Treasury hedge if you
don't already have one on.
We're looking for a quick 30-40% bounce trade
here on a TBT 35-38ish double-bottom.
1/2 position now... 2nd half at TBT 35 if seen.
SOTB
PS: TBT is a Bear ETF on long dated US Treasuries.
Being "short" US Treasuries (which TBT is) should be
one of the "Black Swan" portfolio hedges that nearly
everyone should have in place here.
The "Black Swan" hedges are small, max out of the money
positions short the broad market, short US Treasuries,
and long gold - as "insurance" against any Rogue Wave,
or "Black Swan" market events.
You can listen to Taleb's thesis at a link found here:
Message 26307281 |
