It's always darkest just before dawn.. is the old English saying, I believe. -g-
I have two long-term signal systems that I've studied recently that are mixed. To summarize them:
They are both based on price ratios and their moving averages, the first is $BDI/SPY.
Where BDI is the Baltic Dry Index. It is on a sell signal at present, but is way oversold.
It would take a nice rally in the BDI to move to a buy.
The second is the EEM/SPY, and it is on a Buy.
Backtested both over the last 4 years, with the following results:
BDI/SPY: 3 Buys, 3 Sells, 5 trades. Positive 3/5 times, 60%. Net Return= +90%, APR= +18%.
EEM/SPY: 4 Buys, 3 Sells, 6 trades. Correct 2/6 times, 33%.
Net Return = +32%, APR = +7.2%
While they both beat the pants off Buy and Hold the market(-15%, -3.5%APR), the BDI/SPY is obviously more reliable,
and rewarding.. and I'm still waiting on that Buy signal. |
