Robert: I am sorry to hear about your losses. Actually, I think that tomorrow it will come back up (just a hunch). The stock held at 29.25 but after the close two trades (one at 23 the next at 24 and from someone on the thread, I understand that the whole thing was just 10,000 shares), so it may recover, particularly in view of the BB (at .9) which many are going to interpret as positive (going up) but which I do not. You know better than anyone how to handle this, I am just afraid that after a "dead cat" bounce here, it might resume its trek down. If you have the fortitude to hold for possibly a year, you will be rewarded, but I know I could'nt. I'd take my losses (as I did with Micron in January) and wait until there are more evidence that the semis are reviving. I know that taking such an approach would put you at the risk of selling low just to see the stock run away (for few days, that is what happened after I sold MU, but now it is a third of where I dumped it). I would rather be in the stock when trending up than down, since you cannot know how deep the decline will be. If in three months they come back and say, we still do not see the light at the end of the tunnel, you may be looking at yearly earnings well under $2 and a market unwilling to put on it its fair PE of 20, but a subpar PE of 7 to 10. Just look at the leaders in the semi cap market, some of which are already selling well below book value.
Zeev |
