silver tale, infatuation and battles
chronicle of my silver trades, starting circa 2005, to this day, more or less
Message 21583118 (circa 2005 08 08)
Oh, yes, also got some Pan American Silver at USD 15.92, figured what the heck, in for a penny, in for a pound, finance.yahoo.com
Message 22221841 (circa 2006 03 02)
I bought these stocks (actually, more like unloaded USD) in effort to catch the last train:
SILVER Standard finance.yahoo.com at 17.50 and under
Nevsun Resource finance.yahoo.com at 2.53 and under
Minefinder finance.yahoo.com at 8.25 and under
Golden Star finance.yahoo.com at 3.20-3.25
Metallica finance.yahoo.com at 3.34-3.36
Eldorado finance.yahoo.com at 4.65 and under
Cambior finance.yahoo.com at 3.16 and under
Bema finance.yahoo.com at 4.50 and under
re-entered old flame Yamana finance.yahoo.com at 9.12 and under
added to PAN AMERICAN finance.yahoo.com at 23.50 and under
... all in effort to flee USD-space as did in past 48 hours, there Message 22219846 and here
Message 22215365
I figure your recent buys will rise, due to no inherent merit, but because the measuring currency will be clipped, given to all the usual motivations.
The USD may rise also, due to an interest rate rise or two, before it collapses, because global interest rate will also rise, in which case it will be a reprieve for the USD-holders, allowing more to escape at less cost, via non-USD currency wagers, gold bets and SILVER speculations, and perhaps even the hotsie-totsies you recently bought.
Message 23899299 (circa 2007 09 20)
To be in alignment with the Force and tap the Energy, I bought, bought wildly, without fear, minus the worries, across the board, at market prices, all in super tranche strength, with as must alacrity as I sometimes move between currency regimes and across geographical space, the following:
….
PAN AMERICAN SILVER finance.yahoo.com @ 28.74
…
The theme is Energy, Gold, Land, Food, Emerging Market.
The operative word is BUY.
The constraint is AT ANY PRICE.
The time is RIGHT NOW.
Chugs, TJ
P.S. It is no longer about investing or even speculating, but about financial survival.
Up ahead, just around the corner, we will be mugged by a whole lot of different ways, and so I rather take my chances with the market, before the rest of them (smart institutions and dumb retail) come to the same conclusion, and act to join the dumb institutions and smart retail folks.
If one had to just choose one way, then BUYGOLD is the single operative word, as Scottish pen pal put it succinctly.
Message 23977341 (circa 2007 10 18 exit of gold position)
Besides doing mopping up operation for purchase of earlier mentioned geewhizbangogwhoaweeyikes apartment, I sinned, for I unloaded half (20% of total physical and paper gold) of my paper gold position at HKD 7,000 / tael (1.2 oz to the tael, HKD 7.80 = USD 1:00) and converted to Yen 116.
I do not have any feel other than events has been going too gudd-la, and so perhaps they will now go badly, but with a twist, like yudd-la (yen up dollar down), meaning everything else down as well.
I am a big believer in buy on the dip for gold, but, alas, it is difficult to buy on the dip when one forgets at times to SELL on surge. Courage is a limited quantity item, and best to be conserved, nursed, taken cared of, before they are needed.
Message 24035265 (circa 2007 11 07)
1) Added to SILVER Standard finance.yahoo.com @ 44.88
(2) Further reinforced Golden Star finance.yahoo.com @ 3.61
(3) Solidly enhanced PAN AMERICAN SILVER finance.yahoo.com @ 36.87
Message 24094979 (circa 2007 11 29 macro stance)
Reduced share allocation from the earlier Message 24092831 14.6 odd percent down to 14%, simply could not SELL enough by the time I got done with this and that, and aim to redouble effort with HK market open, and follow on with still more SELL orders come USA day. The details are simply not important for the sales are not about profit and loss to date, but all about what must be saved.
With each % sold, I feel better, as if just saved another precious bundle from a burning building.
All is actually about readying to better loot the soon to be burning house, dispassionately.
Message 24160139 (circa 2007 12 25 waypoint re-calibration)
here is an excerpt of my 2007 eop briefing to family members whose interest I look out for:
December 23rd, 2007
Subject: 2008 Note
Preamble
... As of December 23rd 2007 the Fund (edit by TJ: defined as everything excluding rental real estate) is up 28+% Year-to-Date.
We have collectively done well in 2007, and aim to do better in 2008.
I believe we are well positioned to navigate the obviously dire financial storm:
Cash @ 65% (1/7 in CAD cash, rest in USD 3-mths T-bills, with a bit in SGD, and a wallop in HKD, which, while a proxy of USD to which it is pegged, is better than USD, given the regime's small and non-interfering nature and genuine freedom practiced)
Gold & silver @ 23%
Equities @ 12%
Review of 2007 …
Issues and Concerns …
Forward, We Must Go …
I am concerned, but not paralyzed. I believe we must be:
(i) High agility, be observant, ready to move in large and rapid steps, and to admit mistakes;
(ii) High cash, but in official treasury bills, in case financial intermediary institutions holding our assets go bankrupt or is otherwise not bailed out cleanly. We will at least get back paper with our name on it, even if after a painful time delay. Be ready to ease out of the USD again, into other asset classes, and this time may be for good long time;
(iii) High gold, for gold has performed rather consistently over the past 7 years, and past 6,000 years. However, we must keep in mind that the price of gold had suffered 50% loss in the lead up to its inexorable rise to then all-time high back in 1981;
(iv) High hard and soft commodities, meaning everything useful, like metals and foods, but perhaps wait for a wash out unwinding of currently and uniformly high prices underpinned by possibly unsustainable debt. When and if the speculators are forced to SELL, they must SELL everything, not just what they want and wish to SELL, but also what they prefer holding on to;
(v) High energy, but be cognizant that when the recession (never mind depression) hits, energy will be hit as well;
(vi) High China, but very slowly and carefully, and only after the inevitable bloodletting; and
(vii) High Hong Kong real estate, gradually, over time, and to generate current income while standing a reasonable chance for capital gains.
Message 24426253 (circa 2008 03 28)
(iii) Shorted a handful of finance.yahoo.com PAN AMERICAN SILVER Puts strike 35 @ 4.40;
Message 24771567 (circa 2008 07 18)
my shorted PAAS july 35 put resulted in a put of PAN AMERICAN SILVER finance.yahoo.com shares. the puts were done Message 24426253 at 4.40, so, as wastrel zimdim would say, the position is green.
Message 25239229 (2008 12 08)
(i) got out of my srs and related option deals - i will not bother to tally, and will forget the whole thing by the time i wake up in the am
will reload shorts against commercial real estate when more opportune, because its future in usa is dire.
(ii) bought oodles of tan finance.yahoo.com at 7.53-7.57
(iii) obtained bundles of gdx finance.yahoo.com at 25.159
(iv) picked up loads of paas finance.yahoo.com at 11.48
basically went massive on solar tan per obama directives likely, and went insane on gold and silver mining given that obama's solar directives will cost a lot of ever worth-less dollars - i.e. time to get progressively out of the dollar, imo.
i stand ready to increase the bets to all or nothing proportions.
Message 25255765 (circa 2008 12 15 waypoint re-calibration)
i am now at ...
cash 22.40% (8.4% cad, 1.5% chf, 6.1% hkd, 0.4% sgd, 0.1% rmb, 5.7% usd)
physical & certificate pm 26.11%
re 32.78%
equities
- gold/silver mines 6.80%
- others 11.91% (energies, solar, tbt)
Message 25659412 (circa 2009 05 21 waypoint re-calibration)
i am at
CASH 26% (15% usd/hkd, 10% cad, 1% chf)
au/pt 35% (9% pt) - just other flavors of cash
equity 12% (gold, energy, special situation, srs)
r.estate 27%
Message 25865450 (circa 2009 08 14 macro stance and waypoint re-calibration)
(ii) have added massively to hk industrial real estate by way of my family and friends real estate club and own account at deep value discount from everything else around the planet and everywhere else hk, much of it structured as sale & leaseback, to assist leverage-challenged entreprenuers with balance sheet recovery. the recent adds, all-in four units, are bought at psft prices ranging from 1/20 to 1/5 of all other possible properties in hk, basically at construction cost, and some at construction cost of 1980, all without attributing to land value, and the sale & lease back rent yields range from 4 to 6.8% on cost.
interesting, we estimate the properties' private enterprise redevelopment buyout value to be between 5-6 fold of our cost, and in the unfortunate but less likely case, the government eminent-domain payout to be 2 to 3x our cost.
even more interesting, after signing the provisional sale & purchase on one of the four units, we had to cold-heartedly turn down a 2x buy offer for the newly contracted-for industrial unit, denying the supplicant a chance at redemption, even before we signed the final sale & purchase agreement on the buy side.
recently in other lands they generally have 'buyer's regret', whereas in hk we more often have seller's remorse :0)
(iii) have committed to phoenix iv real estate club, as my earlier phoenix i (hk and japan) has ripened, and phoenix ii (hk, japan, china) is ripening. phoenix iv will focus on hk land aggregation and kowloon building consolidation plays.
(iv) have also added, even more massively, to hk real estate on own account in neighborhood for an i-must-have-now right-on-the-edge-of-sandy-beach-fron abode at exorbitant cost, potential yield is a mere 2.8%, but the psychological pleasure may be well worth the price. besides, the thing is just a bigger pile of gold that i can see and touch, day in and day out, every time i take an ocean swim. i figure to change my routing to supermarket hence forth, looping around to check on the gold that yields.
now that i have front-ran them, i will sell the goodess to any reasonable mainland chinese seeking localized political freedom and generalized economic liberty, or any sensible american wishing for generalized economic freedom and localized political liberty.
given my dramatically different and new stance, when all contracts are executed in 45 days time in the case of above (ii), i will be at:
7% yieldless cash
33% yieldless metals (50/50 paper/physical, and of the physical, about even split au:pt)
44% yielding real estate
16% equities
... i now will hold for a bit and wait for the opportune time to leverage the metals upto 70%, ad real estate upto 50%, in time for super hyper monetary-turned-price inflation, or, duper intense debt-implosion-turned-price deflation, so that last man standing status is more assured.
bottom line, i am bullish, selectively, on things in general, and things within daily visiting distance, in particular.
and i am convinced that (i) monetary inflation will continue, at ever expanding scope and ever increasing pace, (ii) zero-state-monetary-reset will also be, at the most inconvenient but distant-enough time.
the journey to teotwawki dawn for all of us remains from by way of awful zimbabwe to sorry argentina, via sad japan.
iow, all is as well as expected, so far, and will watch n brief as the ancient, sorry and recurring script plays out, to full and fearless audience participation.
Message 25937674 (circa 2009 11 12 waypoint re-calibration)
(iv) i have been so wrapped up in whatever i needed to do and have not been feeling any urgency to review and recalibrate my portfolio - satisfaction does that, and that is admittedly dangerous.
i am at:
5.5% CASH (even split usd/hkd, and cad)
33% physical/paper metals
44% rental re
17.5% equity (mostly gdx, vermilion, petrobank, and an old line industrial company hiding a sexy new enterprise, tagged with some paas, cameco, etc etc of the usual suspects)
i am obviously positioned for hyper something and intend to load up on leverage when called for. i do not believe my position is fatal should i be a bit wrong about the path from zimbabwe to argentina or a bit off with the timing of the journey.
i can trade around the margins of gdx (7%), as well as paper gold (18%), and will trade it when suitable, and can do short naked put / short covered call when opportune.
i do have facility to rapidly leverage up on paper gold as well as gdx on fairly low interest basis by 30% of nav by a few button pushes, and i am as usual fearful of such capability / capacity, even though i do do so occasionally when wishing to tempt gods. this year's swiss chf trade was an example.
the big question to self: is gold @ 1050 the level or is 1100 / 1150 / 1200 for this iteration?
i am feeling, without foundation, but just feel (usa budget year start, seasonality, etc etc) that gold will gain to march 2010, and an temporary step-aside would be wise at that juncture, but not before.
Message 26079227 (circa 2009 11 07 waypoint re-calibration)
(i) just tallying today, in between mid-morning reflexology session (9:00-11:00) and afternoon music accompanied deep nap (1:30-3:30). i am marked-to-market on equity, CASH, and gold, and marked to cost on real estate, and at:
CASH @ 7.3%
- CAD 6.3%
- CHF 0.5%
- Euro 0.1%
- RMB 0.1%
- ZAR 0.1%
- HKD minus 6.8%
- USD 7.2%
Gold/Platinum @ 33.8% (25/25/50 - more or less physical/physical/paper) - i treat/think of the 50% share in gold certificates as as-good-as-or-better-than CASH)
Bonds @ 2.6%
Rental real estate @ 41.5% (30 industrial, 70 residential)
Equity 14.8%
- energy (23.6% of 14.8)
- GDX, PAAS, AEM (34.4%)
- private equity (teeth, dental, 1.1%)
- Other (40.9%)
no debt, yet.
I compared notes with my most respected investor, and he be at, i quote:
30% gold stocks (60-70% of which medium/short term trading positions)
25% physical (mostly gold, some silver), incl. numismatic coins
15% govt. bonds (in Euro/ChF/Eastern European currencies)
10% Japanese shares (via two funds)
10% hedge fund (emerging market long/short equities & credit)
5% biotech shares
5% CASH (euro/USD)
i occasionally change weightings, depending on what happens. trade options as well. (my best trade in 2008 was in VIX calls incidentally)
Message 26186238 (circa 2009 12 17 waypoint re-calibration)
After I sold down Message 26184366 90% of my paper gold position during Money Rock HK trading hours before lunch, which took about two hours in repeated input of max-allowed on-line instruction amounts :0) I did below:
(i) Enjoyed a good lunch of pot stickers lightly coated with chili sauce
(ii) Attended 3:30pm “Avatar” showing youtube.com ; the dialogue is corny, but the movie is visually spectacular and spiritually uplifting, premised on central theme that imperialism must be extinguished. Recommended, the movie and its premise.
(iii) Chaired the property club investors’ yearend dinner at the Maison 1882 Residence Jean-Paul timeout.com.hk
(iv) offloaded the last 10% of my paper gold (gld) that I was not able to unload during the earlier HK offloading.
I am now positioned just so:
cash @ 23.73% (hkd/usd 16.9%, cad 6.1%, euro/chf/rmb 0.73%)
bonds @ 2.16%
physical metals @ 17.49% (50/50 au/pt value at 1100/1400 mark to mark, 56/44 au/pt in oz term, w/ gold cost basis at 404).
certificate metals @ effectively 0% now. paper gold was at 15.71% to physical at 17.49%.
the now effectively closed paper gold trade was a substantive trade deliberated/executed in march and was explicitly targeted to materially lower the cost basis of physical gold holdings so that still more physical can be engaged with underpinned by healthy psychology.
in on-line unreal tournament war scenario terms, i think of the trade as a recon in force, to flush out the enemy positions (discover interim trading band), strengthen own stance (lower physical cost basis and harden psychology), so that full formation can charge forth to do real savaging wet work.
rental real estate @ 40.17%
equity @ 16.45% (energy 3.6%, gold mining 5% all obligated by covered calls, others at 7.85%)
i figure i will re-engage with certificate gold at 1030 and below, maybe as paced for as low as 900, and would concurrently engage with certificate platinum and silver; and the next round may involve leverage upto 50% of my overall nav, because it may be time.
tout ou rien :0)
Message 26661327 (circa 2010 07 04 waypoint re-calibration)
(iii) On macro, imo, it is all about diaper deflation and hyper inflation, the choreographed sequencing, elapsed time, and the possibilities for exogenous shock laying waste to what must burn to cinder.
(iv) On diaper deflation, it will happen, terribly.
(v) On hyper inflation, it will also happen, and horribly.
(vi) On real estate, committed to a land consolidation and redevelopment opportunity on co-investment basis, where success depends on continuing China renaissance, and happiness depends on sustained Hong Kong one-country-two-systems. The project is situated in Causeway Bay of Hong Kong, one of the most expensive retail real locations of the planet.
(vii) Given that the timing can only be guessed at on all possible happenings, and so we must compensate for lack of timing feel by way of positioning.
On positioning, I marked to market on rentals so as to give myself a undistorted picture; and I left private equity at give-away 50% below cost so as to manage my expectations, and am at
Cash: 28% (Cad 8%, HKD/USD 17%, Chf 3%)
Metals: 27% (58:42 physical / paper)
Rental and speculative RE: 38%
Equity: 7% (mostly energy and PAAS and some this and some that)
Message 26833623 (circa 2010 09 20)
iShares SILVER Trust ETF
(i) bought massively SLV @ 20.40
(ii) short sold SLV November Put strike 20 @ 0.76
(iii) short sold SLV November covered Call strike 22 @ 0.43
PAN AMERICAN SILVER Corp.
(i) bought even more massively PAAS @ 28.38
(ii) short sold PAAS January Put strike 28 @ 2.00
(iii) short sold PAAS January covered Call strike 31 @ 1.45
am bullish, and so needed to sate 10 years of pent-up demand for silver
let us pray so as to better prey
tout ou rien, tj
Message 26964980 (circa 2010 11 16)
Also sold PAN AMERICAN SILVER bought Message 25239229 , but
i remain with the shares of PAAS along with the shorted options (puts and calls both) done a few weeks ago, together with the similarly done-up slv trade
Message 26833623
Message 26965049 (circa 2010 11 16)
followup REPORT, the PAAS sell got executed at 35.45 meaning it did a 3x since Message 25239229
A good run.
Maybe cme will do some real damage to silver in time for thanks giving and for enabling better cloud-ATM trade of PAAS.
Message 27035065 (circa 2010 12 18)
(2) I was negligent in my duty and forgot to followup on this trade Message 26833623
(i) bought massively SLV @ 20.40
(ii) short sold SLV November Put strike 20 @ 0.76
(iii) short sold SLV November covered Call strike 22 @ 0.43
... where the shares got called away at 22, netting a gain of 13.68% over 60 days.
(3) I look to this trade Message 26833623 to close out in my favor, as usual, as should be
PAN AMERICAN SILVER Corp.
(i) bought even more massively PAAS @ 28.38
(ii) short sold PAAS January Put strike 28 @ 2.00
(iii) short sold PAAS January covered Call strike 31 @ 1.45
... so that I can claim my well deserved 21% over 120 days.
sure, in all cases a straight long position would have netted more, but what would be the astuteness in that?
Message 27040485 (circa 2010 12 21)
(2) bought enough PAAS at USD 39.75
- sold equal covered Calls April 2011, 42 at USD 2.7098
- sold equal Puts April 2011, 38 at USD 2.8072
Message 27123383 (circa 2011 01 27)
Just bravely did below, though at 1/10 of usual calibration:
- short Puts GDX March 54 at USD 2.57 and
- short Put PAAS March 32 at USD 2.20.
Message 27179770 (circa 2011 02 18)
i) bought to close puts gdx march 54 at usd 0.38
and bought to close puts PAAS march 32 at usd 0.50
if you do not remember, the positions were opened on january 28th, just so few days ago when conditions looked somewhat dire for metals and calmer in the middle east
Message 27123383
<<- short Puts GDX March 54 at USD 2.57 and
- short Put PAAS March 32 at USD 2.20.>>
(ii) decided to do nothing about this trade
Message 27107435
<<Cyber prospected by writing february gdx puts strike 53 @ 1.76>>
... that was done on january 21st, when the situation for metals looked even more dire since i do not believe gdx can drop by that much over the next fews days to expiration. what do you think?
(iii) bought PAAS shares at usd 36.27
- sold puts PAAS april 36 at usd 2.20
- sold calls PAAS april 36 at usd 2.50
... to sate imperative for last man standing death match gaming urge.
Message 27263207 (circa 2011 03 25)
(v) Bought to close PAAS April Calls and Puts both at strike 36 at a combined price of USD 3.3. The trades were tee-ed up February 18th at combined premium taking of USD 4.70 Message 27179770 , iow, another fair return for … cloud atm.
Still have Message 27040485 shorted April PAAS calls strike 42 and shorted puts 38 on the books.
…
now we ride just long PAAS equity to kingdom come
Message 27294113 (circa 2011 04 07)
(i) Besides the cyber mining noted earlier Message 27291978 re clf
where i sold all cliff natural resource shares at 99.95 i.e. defined as 5.6% w/i 13 days is enough and left in place the rear-guard action positions of shorted puts @ strike 95 n 90 (shall pull back the allocations after further "half life" decay on the counterparties' time n dime), i later did ...
(ii) a good cloud atm extraction, and I was productive, shorted PAAS covered calls strike 42 May expiration, @ usd 1.25 on all unencumbered PAN AMERICAN SILVER shares.
the PAAS thus newly encumbered were only freed up march 25 Message 27263207
<<(v) Bought to close PAAS April Calls and Puts both at strike 36 at a combined price of USD 3.3. The trades were tee-ed up February 18th at combined premium taking of USD 4.70 Message 27179770 , iow, another fair return for … cloud atm.
Still have Message 27040485 shorted April PAAS calls strike 42 and shorted puts 38 on the books.>
Left alone earlier PAAS long, short covered calls @ 42 and short puts @ 38. SILVER is far from having fully expressed enthusiasm for teotwawki dawn and the cloud atm machine should be good for between 7-15 years. We are blessed to be able to tag w/ a second career centered around PAAS.
Am casing new targets for virtual robbery, and am currently playing profitable computer gaming in abx, remx, gdx, PAAS, clf, fcx arena.
Am now generally cautious, looking forward to collapse that may not happen, and looking to either buy or sell paper gold, buy paper platinum and/or paper SILVER, and maybe even borrow from the japanese, so as to properly engage with the super bubble that could be hong kong as the rental yield move from 2.5% to 1% then to zero %.
All in good, choreographed and calibrated time.
Am almost convinced that there shall be qe3 after a post qe2 breakdown. And should there be qe3, then qe7 is baked in, n qe9 is fairly certain.
Message 27040485 (circa 2011 04 11)
bought to close:
…
___ Put PAAS, strike 42, April 2011 at USD 0.15 (originally you sold them
at 2.81)
Message 27315361 (circa 2011 04 18)
ii) came back to hong kong in the late afternoon, and am notified that
"Further to the April expiry of the Calls on PAAS, strike 42, please note that _____ PAAS shares are now freely available again"
the PAAS calls were shorted here Message 27040485
<<(2) bought enough PAAS at USD 39.75
- sold equal covered Calls April 2011, 42 at USD 2.7098
- sold equal Puts April 2011, 38 at USD 2.8072>>
the PAAS put 38 were not put to me for whatever reason, perhaps a reward for my altruism.
Message 27476241 (circa 2011 07 07)
bought 1/3 of eventual PAPER SILVER position per Message 27476235 logic, to front run the chinese, at hkd 282.11 per troy oz, before the chinese front run the americans.
am imagining the scene on the day the planet stops spinning and americans do as the chinese once did, showing respect to the metals and with enthusiasm, and with cnn providing 24/7 coverage.
Message 27491321 (circa 2011 07 14)
just executed buys of papers
- 1/6 strength pt @ 1780
- 1/3 strength ag @ 38.53 (hkd at 7.76 rate to usd for conversion)
- 1/3 strength au @ 1,582
Message 27499411 (circa 2011 07 18)
- SELL wallops of PAAS Calls, 38, Oct 2011 at 1.40
- SELL wallops of PAAS Puts, 33, Oct 2011 at 2.70
Socialism works better when enhanced with tax-free cloud ATM extraction.
(ii) silver shall be sought as a shelter by the proletariats against ruthless monetary depravity
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