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Pastimes : Major League Baseball (MLB)
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To: spitsong who wrote (16491)8/27/2011 3:47:10 AM
From: spitsong1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) of 29239
 
How does Justin Verlander's AL Cy Young case stack up?

Against Cy Young winners (and select runners-up) for the previous 6 years, that is:

Year  Winner              W-L   CG   IP    BB   K    ERA  WHIP   BAA  WAR**
----  ----------------   -----  --  -----  --  ---  ----  ----  ----  ---
2011  Justin Verlander*  19-5    4  209.2  45  212  2.28  0.88  .185  7.4
2010  Felix Hernandez    13-12   6  249.2  70  232  2.27  1.06  .212  6.2
2009  Zack Greinke       16-8    6  229.1  51  242  2.16  1.07  .230  9.0
2008  Cliff Lee          22-3    4  223.1  34  170  2.54  1.11  .253  7.3
2007  C.C. Sabathia      19-7    4  241.0  37  209  3.21  1.14  .259  6.8
2006  Johan Santana      19-6    1  233.2  47  245  2.77  1.00        7.0
2005  Bartolo Colon      21-8    2  222.2  43  157  3.48  1.16        4.4

Year  Runner-Up           W-L   CG   IP    BB   K    ERA  WHIP   BAA  WAR**
----  ----------------   -----  --  -----  --  ---  ----  ----  ----  ---
2011  Jered Weaver*      15-6    4  195.1  44  166  2.03  0.97  .206  6.5
2009  Felix Hernandez    19-5    2  238.2  71  217  2.49  1.14  .227  5.8
2008  Roy Halladay       20-11   9  246.0  39  206  2.78  1.05  .237  6.5
2007  Josh Beckett       20-7    1  200.2  40  194  3.27  1.14  .245  4.7

*2011 numbers (or awards!) are not final for the season, of course.
**WAR numbers are from baseball-reference.com

2010 Message 26855996
2009 siliconinvestor.com
2008 siliconinvestor.com
2007 siliconinvestor.com

Verlander's numbers this year (excepting innings pitched) are already comparable to the best anyone has done in the American League for the previous 6 years. And in several categories they are markedly better with the prospect for mo' betta -- he seems likely to have the most wins and strikeouts of any Cy Young winner over that time as well as having by far the lowest WHIP and BAA.

Not to be entirely overlooked in this is that Jered Weaver's numbers this year are almost as remarkable; his ERA, BAA, and WHIP are better than any AL Cy Young Award winner for the previous 6 years.

Note that a couple updates ago I removed a paragraph at the last minute saying that I expected Jered Weaver's numbers to start falling off from their then-near-Koufax levels. He promptly tanked his next start. I wouldn't be too surprised to see both Weaver and Verlander regress a little bit from where they are now -- it's not really fair to remove the drama of September pennant races (both for and against your team) from the comparison, which I did above.

That said, I'm looking forward to watching these guys for the rest of the season.
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